Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 28

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas)

Referee: Melero M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
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Australia	beIN Connect
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Belgium	DAZN 1
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Colombia	Disney+
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Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
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France	beIN Connect
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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online
World	Disney+


	Las Palmas		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.75	Watch
	2.95	3	2.55
	2.85	3	2.8	Watch
	2.9	3.04	2.86
	2.88	2.97	2.73	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.62
	2.86	3.07	2.81	Watch
	2.85	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.77)	3 ↓ (3.03)	2.74 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Las Palmas
33.2%

Draw
31.9%

Deportivo Alavés
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

31.5%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

31.5%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.1%	37.7%	30.2%

Las Palmas - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Las Palmas will win (votes: 16 - 31.4%). Alavés will win (votes: 15 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 39.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.8% – 52.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cillessen J. (G) 4. Alex Suarez (C) 28. Herzog J. 15. McKenna S. 23. Munoz A. 5. Javier Munoz 8. Campana J. 21. Bajcetic S. 10. Moleiro A. 37. Silva F. 19. Ramirez S.	31. Rodriguez A. (G) 14. Tenaglia N. 5. Abqar A. 12. Mourino S. 3. Sanchez M. 7. Vicente C. 24. Joan Jordan 6. Guevara A. (C) 21. Alena C. 11. Martinez T. 15. Martin C.
Substitutes
9. Cardona M. 14. Fuster M. 13. Horkas D. (G) 24. Januzaj A. 12. Loiodice E. 3. Marmol M. 2. Marvin 17. Mata J. 16. McBurnie O. 33. Viera Garcia S.	19. Cabanes P. 2. Garces F. 17. Garcia K. 18. Guridi J. 16. Novoa Ramos H. 13. Owono J. (G) 36. Pica A. 23. Protesoni C. 4. Sedlar A. 41. Swiderski G. (G) 9. Villalibre A.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Coudet E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Joan Jordan 🟨,
5', Munoz A. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Martinez T. ⚽, Mourino S. (A),
45+1', Martinez T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Bajcetic S. ↓, McBurnie O. ↑,
46', Munoz A. ↓, Marmol M. ↑,
49', Ramirez S. 🟨,
60', Alex Suarez ↓, Marvin ↑,
60', Martinez T. ↓, Villalibre A. ↑,
61', Vicente C. ↓, Guridi J. ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Guridi J. ⚽, Villalibre A. (A),
70', Ramirez S. ↓, Januzaj A. ↑,
76', Joan Jordan ↓, Protesoni C. ↑,
77', Martin C. ↓, Garces F. ↑,
80', Tenaglia N. 🟨,
80', Campana J. ↓, Fuster M. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Silva F. (Pen),
90+3', Januzaj A. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Moleiro A. ⚽,
90+7', Martinez D. 🟨,
90+7', Coudet E. 🟨,
90+9', Villalibre A. 🟨,
90+10', Fuster M. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 1.

Las Palmas has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Alavés is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Las Palmas: Essugo D. (Red Card) Pelmard A. (Injury) Ramirez B. (Injury) Rodriguez K. (Health problems) Viti (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Alavés: Blanco A. (Red Card) Conechny T. (Head Injury) Diarra M. (Yellow Cards) Novoa Ramos H. (Groin Injury) Sivera A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Las Palmas: Marmol M. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Alavés: Owono J. (Knee Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 2 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:18 (average 0.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Las Palmas won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.8:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga
09.03.25	Betis - Las Palmas	1:0 ✺
28.02.25	Valladolid - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Las Palmas - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
16.02.25	Mallorca - Las Palmas	3:1 ✺
08.02.25	Las Palmas - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
08.03.25	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Mallorca - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Deportivo Alavés - Espanyol	0:1 ✺
15.02.25	Leganés - Deportivo Alavés	3:3 ✺
09.02.25	Deportivo Alavés - Getafe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.09.24	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	2:0
26.05.24	Las Palmas - Deportivo Alavés	1:1
09.12.23	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	0:1
Spanish LaLiga2
27.05.23	Las Palmas - Deportivo Alavés	0:0
03.09.22	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	1:1
Spanish LaLiga
22.04.18	Las Palmas - Deportivo Alavés	0:4
08.12.17	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	2:0

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