Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 11

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas)

Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Angola	Z Sport La Liga
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Canada	TSN+
Chile	ESPN
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, Now Sports 2
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, RCTI+, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kosovo	K Sport 2
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Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
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Peru	ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
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Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 1, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Taiwan	DAZN
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online
World	Disney+, JioTV app, SportsMax App


	Las Palmas		Girona

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.85	3.3	2.45
	2.85	3.4	2.55	Watch
	2.88	3.4	2.61
	2.85	3.37	2.58	Watch
	2.88	3.3	2.5
	2.9	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (3.62)	3.38 ↓ (3.55)	2.54 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Las Palmas
33.7%

Draw
28.4%

Girona
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

26.9%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

26.3%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Palmas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Las Palmas's performance.

Girona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Girona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Las Palmas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Girona than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Girona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	19.2%	42.3%

Las Palmas - Girona Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Las Palmas will win (votes: 10 - 38.5%). Girona will win (votes: 11 - 42.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 19.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Girona: 23.3% – 61.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cillessen J. (G) 18. Viti 4. Alex Suarez 15. McKenna S. 23. Munoz A. 29. Essugo D. 8. Campana J. 14. Fuster M. 20. Rodriguez K. (C) 10. Moleiro A. 37. Silva F.	13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 16. Frances A. 5. Lopez D. 18. Krejci L. 3. Gutierrez M. 27. Misehouy G. 4. Martinez A. (C) 28. Clua Oya S. 6. van de Beek D. 11. Danjuma A. 19. Miovski B.
Substitutes
9. Cardona M. 21. Gil I. 6. Gonzalez F. 28. Herzog J. 13. Horkas D. (G) 5. Javier Munoz 12. Loiodice E. 3. Marmol M. 17. Mata J. 16. McBurnie O. 11. Ramirez B. 19. Ramirez S.	44. Ba P. 17. Blind D. 42. Garcia L. (G) 21. Herrera Y. 1. Juan Carlos (G) 15. Juanpe 29. Kim M. 37. Martinez R. 7. Stuani C.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Campana J. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Munoz A. ⚽, Silva F. (A),
43', Frances A. ↓, Ba P. ↑,
43', Michel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Essugo D. 🟨,
59', Fuster M. ↓, Javier Munoz ↑,
60', Campana J. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
66', Clua Oya S. ↓, Blind D. ↑,
70', Silva F. ↓, McBurnie O. ↑,
72', van de Beek D. 🟨,
78', Juan Carlos 🟥,
85', Viti ↓, Marmol M. ↑,
85', Rodriguez K. ↓, Mata J. ↑,
87', Blind D. 🟨,
90+1', Martinez A. 🟨,
90+4', Martinez A. ↓, Kim M. ↑,
90+6', Krejci L. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 0.

Las Palmas is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Girona is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Las Palmas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Girona have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Girona: Artero R. (Ankle Injury) Asprilla Y. (Ankle Injury) Gil B. (Ankle Injury) Jastin G. (Shoulder Injury) Lopez P. (Muscle Injury) Portu (Ankle Injury) Romeu O. (Thigh Injury) Solis Romero J. E. (Muscle Injury) Tsygankov V. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Las Palmas: Marvin (Injury)

There are questionable in Girona: Blind D. (Calf Injury) Martin I. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz A. (Muscle Injury) van de Beek D. (Muscle Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 20:29 (average 1.2:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Las Palmas won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15:14 (average 1.7:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga
21.10.24	Valencia - Las Palmas	2:3 ✺
05.10.24	Las Palmas - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
30.09.24	Villarreal - Las Palmas	3:1 ✺
26.09.24	Las Palmas - Betis	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Osasuna - Las Palmas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLLTL
- Girona FC
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Girona - Slovan Bratislava	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.24	Girona - Real Sociedad	0:1 ✺
06.10.24	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.10.24	Girona - Feyenoord	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
27.04.24	Las Palmas - Girona	0:2
03.09.23	Girona - Las Palmas	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
12.03.22	Las Palmas - Girona	1:3
22.08.21	Girona - Las Palmas	0:0
19.03.21	Las Palmas - Girona	1:2
09.11.20	Girona - Las Palmas	1:1
13.06.20	Las Palmas - Girona	0:0

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