Match Info

LaLiga - Round 28

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi (Girona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
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Vietnam	ON Football, SCTV 15


	Girona		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.4	Watch
	2.82	3.45	2.48
	3.05	3.35	2.51
	2.83	3.26	2.58	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.4
	3	3.41	2.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.72)	3.31 ↓ (3.37)	2.48 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Girona
32.7%

Draw
28.8%

Athletic Bilbao
38.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.9%

28.2%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

28.4%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Girona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Girona than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.1%	57.6%	36.4%

Girona - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Girona will win (votes: 2 - 6.1%). Athletic will win (votes: 12 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 57.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40.7% – 74.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 6 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH 0 - Athletic (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 2. Rincon H. 16. Frances A. 17. Blind D. 4. Martinez A. (C) 15. Tsygankov V. 8. Beltran F. 20. Witsel A. 18. Ounahi A. 3. Roca J. 19. Vanat V.	1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 23. Navarro R. 8. Sancet O. 7. Berenguer A. 9. Williams I. (C)
Substitutes
44. Ba P. 1. Blanco R. (G) 14. Echeverri C. 29. Kourouma L. 25. Krapyvtsov V. (G) 5. Lopez D. 23. Martin I. 24. Moreno A. 9. Ruiz A.	12. Areso J. 19. Boiro A. 49. Garcia E. 11. Guruzeta G. 25. Izeta 15. Lekue I. 47. Monreal I. 27. Padilla A. (G) 44. Sanchez S. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Michel	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Rincon H. ⚽, Tsygankov V. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Navarro R. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
46', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
68', Jauregizar M. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
70', Vanat V. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
70', Beltran F. ↓, Martin I. ↑,
73', Sancet O. 🟨,
74', Sancet O. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Ounahi A. ⚽, Echeverri C. (A),
79', Williams I. ↓, Izeta ↑,
82', Berenguer A. 🟨,
83', Roca J. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
83', Ounahi A. ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 0, Echeverri C. ⚽, Tsygankov V. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Girona won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Girona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Girona: Artero R. (Ankle Injury) Gil B. (Knee Injury) Juan Carlos (Knee Injury) Portu (Knee Injury) Stuani C. (Muscle Injury) Vitor Reis (Yellow Cards) ter Stegen M. (Hamstring Injury) van de Beek D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Gomez U. (Injury) Paredes A. (Contusion) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Rego A. (Yellow Cards) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Girona won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Girona won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Ath Bilbao: 0.18%

Last Results with these Odds

Girona - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.95%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Girona FC
Spanish LaLiga
07.03.26	Levante - Girona	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Girona - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
23.02.26	Deportivo Alavés - Girona	2:2 ✺
16.02.26	Girona - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Sevilla - Girona	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 TLTWT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
07.03.26	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.03.26	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Elche	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Real Oviedo - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
23.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	1:1
08.02.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	3:0
06.10.24	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1
19.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	3:2
27.11.23	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
26.02.23	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	2:3
04.11.22	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1

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