Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 8

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Francis Le Basser (Laval)

Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Sports MENA French 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2, Free


	Laval		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.9	Watch
	2.58	3	2.82
	2.63	3.09	3.05
	30.00	6.01	1.13	Watch
	2.64	3.08	2.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.07 ↑ (2.85)	3.64 ↑ (3.07)	2.55 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Laval
15.7%

Draw
34.8%

Montpellier
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

30.6%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

30.8%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Laval has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Laval's form might have worsened.

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Laval than the current prediction. (+17.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Laval, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Laval - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Laval will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Montpellier (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Samassa M. (G) 21. Aradj Y. 23. Tavares Y. 2. Pellenard T. 6. Sanna S. (C) 10. Sellouki M. 14. Mandouki C. 8. Thomas T. 7. Vargas T. 18. Tchokounte M. 28. Maggiotti J.	31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 3. El Hannach N. 27. Omeragic B. 6. Jullien C. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 18. Pays N. 7. Mbuku N. 44. Chennahi T. 14. Orakpo V. 19. Mendy A.
Substitutes
33. Aristide M. 26. Benard W. 3. Bianda W. 20. Clavreul E. 1. Hautbois M. (G) 25. Montet E. 22. Mupemba N.	33. Da Silva L. 35. Mahboub F. 1. Michel M. (G) 21. Mincarelli L. 36. Mohamed I. 24. Ndiaye J. 11. Savanier T.
Coaches
Frapolli O.	Camara Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Mendy A. ⚽, Junior Pereira da Silva E. (A),
31', El Hannach N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sainte-Luce T. ↓, Mincarelli L. ↑,
56', Ngapandouetnbu S. 🟨,
63', Pays N. 🟨,
68', Sellouki M. ↓, Clavreul E. ↑,
68', Mendy A. ↓, Savanier T. ↑,
75', Orakpo V. 🟨,
77', Sanna S. ↓, Mupemba N. ↑,
83', Aradj Y. ↓, Bianda W. ↑,
83', Thomas T. ↓, Montet E. ↑,
84', Maggiotti J. ↓, Aristide M. ↑,
88', Pays N. ↓, Mahboub F. ↑,
88', El Hannach N. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
90+5', Mincarelli L. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 14 and 12)

In recent matches, Laval has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montpellier is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Laval may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Laval: Adilehou M. (Inactive) Camara M. (Inactive) Commaret M. (Injury) Maddy E. (Inactive) Montet E. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Fayad K. (Leg Injury) Gueguin A. (Inactive) Laporte J. (Red Card) Ngosso G. (Knee Injury) Sishuba A. (Muscle Injury) Tchato E. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Laval won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Including home match between the teams, Laval won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Laval
French Ligue 2
23.09.25	Pau - Laval	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Laval - Amiens	0:3 ✺
12.09.25	Boulogne - Laval	1:2 ✺
29.08.25	Laval - Clermont	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Rodez - Laval	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWTT
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
23.09.25	Montpellier - Boulogne	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0 ✺
15.09.25	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Montpellier - Amiens	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Troyes - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Coupe de la Ligue
25.10.16	Laval - Montpellier	0:2

Upcoming Matches