Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 19 September 2023, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports Max
Italy	Canale 5, Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Portugal	Eleven Sports 5
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Lazio		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.5
	2.92	3.25	2.58	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.5
	3.05	3.23	2.6
	2.8	3	2.3
	2.95	3.28	2.46
	2.95	3.25	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.9)	3.2 ↓ (3.23)	2.5 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
32.3%

Draw
29.7%

Atlético Madrid
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

29.1%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

29.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Atlético Madrid aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	32.8%	56.9%

Lazio - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 6 - 10.3%). Atlético will win (votes: 33 - 56.9%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 32.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 44.2% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Provedel I. (G) 77. Marusic A. 4. Patric 13. Romagnoli A. 3. Pellegrini Lu. 6. Kamada D. 5. Vecino M. 10. Luis Alberto 7. Felipe Anderson 17. Immobile C. (C) 20. Zaccagni M.	13. Oblak J. (C) 16. Molina N. 15. Savic S. 20. Witsel A. 22. Hermoso M. 12. Lino S. 8. Niguez S. 24. Barrios P. 14. Llorente M. 19. Morata A. 7. Griezmann A.
Substitutes
15. Casale N. 19. Castellanos T. 32. Cataldi D. 34. Gila M. 8. Guendouzi M. 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 29. Lazzari M. 9. Pedro 59. Renzetti D. (G) 65. Rovella N. 33. Sepe L. (G)	3. Azpilicueta C. 36. Calatrava A. 10. Correa A. 30. El Jebari S. 17. Galan J. 2. Gimenez J. M. 31. Gomis A. (G) 1. Grbic I. (G) 27. Kostis I. 40. Mini 25. Riquelme R.
Coaches
Sarri M.	Simeone D.

Preview

Recent matches Lazio is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Atlético: Depay M. (Thigh Injury) Lemar T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Mandava R. (Knee Injury) Vitolo (Knee Injury) de Paul R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Koke (Muscle Injury) Soyuncu C. (Groin Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Lazio won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Lazio won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
16.09.23	Juventus - Lazio	3:1 ✺
02.09.23	Napoli - Lazio	1:2 ✺
27.08.23	Lazio - Genoa	0:1 ✺
20.08.23	Lecce - Lazio	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.08.23	Latina - Lazio	0:9 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWLLW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
16.09.23	Valencia - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
28.08.23	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	0:7 ✺
Club Friendly
24.08.23	Numancia - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
20.08.23	Betis - Atlético Madrid	0:0 ✺
14.08.23	Atlético Madrid - Granada	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
23.02.12	Atlético Madrid - Lazio	1:0

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