Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Collu G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play
Finland	DAZN, MTV Urheilu 2
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Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+, Peacock
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lazio		Monza

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.9	4.75
	1.68	3.90	4.80
	1.7	3.75	4.85
	1.72	3.94	5.1
	1.71	3.9	4.83	Watch
	1.69	3.85	4.9
	1.73	4.06	5.25
	1.7	3.95	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.56)	3.91 ↓ (4.11)	4.91 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
56.1%

Draw
24.5%

Monza
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

23.2%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

22.6%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lazio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.7%	4.3%	0%

Lazio - Monza Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - Lazio (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Lazio (1.75) (votes: 94%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Lazio will win (21 of 22 users predict this - 95.45%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.74% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lazio will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 3.

Lazio has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Monza has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lazio may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Lazio carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Lazio: Furlanetto A. (Knee Injury) Gudmundsson A. (Shoulder Injury) Marusic A. (Muscle Injury) Pellegrini Lu. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Monza: Pessina M. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Lazio: Cataldi D. (Groin Injury) Rovella N. (Calf Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Monza: Toure I. (Contusion) Ziolkowski J. (Foot Injury).

Our forecast points to a victory for Lazio in today's match, at odds of 1.62.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Lazio has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:4 (averaging 2:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lazio against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 7:2 goals (averaging 2.3:0.7 per game).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Lazio: 0.97% Monza: 0.15%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
15	Monza	5	1	1	3	8:12	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Lazio - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 60.99%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Lazio - Juve Stabia	3:3
27.09.26	Lazio - Arezzo	2:0
Italian Serie A
19.09.26	Venezia - Lazio	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Lazio - Milan	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	Udinese - Lazio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWTW
- Monza 1912
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Brest - Monza	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	Monza - Cremonese	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
18.09.26	Monza - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Lecce - Monza	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Parma - Monza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
09.02.25	Lazio - Monza	5:1
10.11.24	Monza - Lazio	0:1
04.05.24	Monza - Lazio	2:2
23.09.23	Lazio - Monza	1:1
02.04.23	Monza - Lazio	0:2
10.11.22	Lazio - Monza	1:0

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