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Lazio - Roma

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Match Info

  • Serie A - Round 4
  • Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Lazio Roma
    Lazio Roma
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.79 ↓
    (2.8)    		 3 ↓
    (3.25)    		 2.82 ↑
    (2.59)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Lazio
    34.3%    		Draw
    31.8%    		Roma
    33.9%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    34% 29.3% 36.8%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    34.3% 29.6% 36.1%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Lazio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • The ML Model estimate for Lazio aligns with the current prediction.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    24.5% 60.4% 15.1%

    Lazio - Roma Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 13 - 25%). Roma will win (votes: 8 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 31 - 59.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.3% โ€“ 72.9%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 11 - 73.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Lazio (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 6.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - Lazio (1.48) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.42) (votes: 0 - 0%) .
    • AH 0, 1st Half - Lazio (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 8 - 40%). Roma (votes: 1 - 5%). Tie (votes: 11 - 55%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    94. ItalyProvedel I. (G)
    77. MontenegroMarusic A.
    34. SpainGila M.
    13. ItalyRomagnoli A.
    17. PortugalTavares N.
      8. FranceGuendouzi M.
      6. ItalyRovella N.
      7. NigeriaDele-Bashiru F.
      9. SpainPedro
    19. SenegalDia B.
    10. ItalyZaccagni M. (C)
    		99. SerbiaSvilar M. (G)
    19. TurkeyCelik Z.
    23. ItalyMancini G.
      5. IvoryNdicka E.
      2. NetherlandsRensch D.
    17. FranceKone M.
      4. ItalyCristante B. (C)
      3. SpainAngelino
      7. ItalyPellegrini Lo.
    18. ArgentinaSoule M.
    11. IrelandFerguson E.
    Substitutes
    21. MoroccoBelahyane R.
    22. ItalyCancellieri M.
    11. ArgentinaCastellanos T.
    32. ItalyCataldi D.
    71. ItalyFarcomeni V.
    55. ItalyFurlanetto A. (G)
    23. AlbaniaHysaj E.
    18. DenmarkIsaksen G.
    35. GreeceMandas C. (G)
    14. NetherlandsNoslin T.
      4. SpainPatric
      3. ItalyPellegrini Lu.
    66. ItalyPinelli P.
    25. DenmarkProvstgaard O.
    		35. ItalyBaldanzi T.
    66. SpainBuba Aboubacar
      9. UkraineDovbyk A.
      8. MoroccoEl Aynaoui N.
    92. ItalyEl Shaarawy S.
    87. ItalyGhilardi D.
    95. ItalyGollini P. (G)
    61. ItalyPisilli N.
    12. GreeceTsimikas K.
    32. ColombiaVasquez Llach D. S. (G)
    24. PolandZiolkowski J.
    Coaches
         ItalySarri M.
    		     ItalyGasperini G.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 14', Dele-Bashiru F. ↓, Belahyane R. ↑,
    • 38', 0 - 1, Pellegrini Lo. ⚽, Soule M. (A),
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 46', Rovella N. ↓, Cataldi D. ↑,
    • 46', Tavares N. ↓, Pellegrini Lu. ↑,
    • 62', Dia B. ↓, Castellanos T. ↑,
    • 66', Ferguson E. ↓, Dovbyk A. ↑,
    • 73', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
    • 73', Soule M. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
    • 79', Pedro ↓, Noslin T. ↑,
    • 81', Cristante B. ↓, El Aynaoui N. ↑,
    • 81', Angelino ↓, Tsimikas K. ↑,
    • 83', Ndicka E. 🟨,
    • 86', Belahyane R. 🟥,
    • 88', Gila M. 🟨,
    • 90+7', Guendouzi M. 🟥,

    Preview

  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 1.
  • In recent matches, Lazio has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Roma is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 3).
  • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
  • There will not play in Lazio: Gigot S. (Back Injury) Lazzari M. (Calf Injury)
  • There will not play in Roma: Bailey L. (Thigh Injury) Bove E. (Heart Problems) Dybala P. (Muscle Injury)
  • There are questionable in Lazio: Patric (Ankle Injury) Rovella N. (Injury) Vecino M. (Thigh Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 1.5:0.4).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SS Lazio
    Italian Serie A
    14.09.25 Sassuolo - Lazio 1:0 ✺
    31.08.25 Lazio - Verona 4:0 ✺
    24.08.25 Como - Lazio 2:0 ✺
    Club Friendly
    16.08.25 Lazio - Atromitos Athens 2:0 ✺
    09.08.25 Burnley - Lazio 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7
    LWLWW
    - AS Roma
    Italian Serie A
    14.09.25 Roma - Torino 0:1 ✺
    30.08.25 Pisa - Roma 0:1 ✺
    23.08.25 Roma - Bologna 1:0 ✺
    Club Friendly
    16.08.25 Roma - Neom 2:2 ✺
    09.08.25 Everton - Roma 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3
    LWWTW
    Latest Head to Head
    Italian Serie A
    13.04.25 Lazio - Roma 1:1
    05.01.25 Roma - Lazio 2:0
    06.04.24 Roma - Lazio 1:0
    Coppa Italia
    10.01.24 Lazio - Roma 1:0
    Italian Serie A
    12.11.23 Lazio - Roma 0:0
    19.03.23 Lazio - Roma 1:0
    06.11.22 Roma - Lazio 0:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SS Lazio
    Italian Serie A
    01.11.26 Lazio - Cagliari ✺
    - AS Roma
    UEFA Champions League
    03.11.26 Manchester United - Roma ✺
    Italian Serie A
    31.10.26 Udinese - Roma ✺

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