Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, CBS Sports Network, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fubo Sports Network, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Lazio		Roma

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.9	2.88	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.6
	2.82	2.98	2.78	Watch
	2.9	3.02	2.85
	2.63	2.93	2.91	Watch
	2.88	2.98	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (2.8)	3 ↓ (3.25)	2.82 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
34.3%

Draw
31.8%

Roma
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

29.3%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

29.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.5%	60.4%	15.1%

Lazio - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 13 - 25%). Roma will win (votes: 8 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 31 - 59.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.3% – 72.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 11 - 73.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Lazio (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Lazio (1.48) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.42) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Lazio (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 8 - 40%). Roma (votes: 1 - 5%). Tie (votes: 11 - 55%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Provedel I. (G) 77. Marusic A. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 17. Tavares N. 8. Guendouzi M. 6. Rovella N. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 9. Pedro 19. Dia B. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	99. Svilar M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 2. Rensch D. 17. Kone M. 4. Cristante B. (C) 3. Angelino 7. Pellegrini Lo. 18. Soule M. 11. Ferguson E.
Substitutes
21. Belahyane R. 22. Cancellieri M. 11. Castellanos T. 32. Cataldi D. 71. Farcomeni V. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 35. Mandas C. (G) 14. Noslin T. 4. Patric 3. Pellegrini Lu. 66. Pinelli P. 25. Provstgaard O.	35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 9. Dovbyk A. 8. El Aynaoui N. 92. El Shaarawy S. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 61. Pisilli N. 12. Tsimikas K. 32. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Sarri M.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Dele-Bashiru F. ↓, Belahyane R. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Pellegrini Lo. ⚽, Soule M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rovella N. ↓, Cataldi D. ↑,
46', Tavares N. ↓, Pellegrini Lu. ↑,
62', Dia B. ↓, Castellanos T. ↑,
66', Ferguson E. ↓, Dovbyk A. ↑,
73', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
73', Soule M. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
79', Pedro ↓, Noslin T. ↑,
81', Cristante B. ↓, El Aynaoui N. ↑,
81', Angelino ↓, Tsimikas K. ↑,
83', Ndicka E. 🟨,
86', Belahyane R. 🟥,
88', Gila M. 🟨,
90+7', Guendouzi M. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 1.

In recent matches, Lazio has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Roma is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Lazio: Gigot S. (Back Injury) Lazzari M. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Bailey L. (Thigh Injury) Bove E. (Heart Problems) Dybala P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lazio: Patric (Ankle Injury) Rovella N. (Injury) Vecino M. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 1.5:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Sassuolo - Lazio	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Lazio - Verona	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Como - Lazio	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Lazio - Atromitos Athens	2:0 ✺
09.08.25	Burnley - Lazio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWW
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Roma - Torino	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Pisa - Roma	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Roma - Bologna	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Roma - Neom	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Everton - Roma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
13.04.25	Lazio - Roma	1:1
05.01.25	Roma - Lazio	2:0
06.04.24	Roma - Lazio	1:0
Coppa Italia
10.01.24	Lazio - Roma	1:0
Italian Serie A
12.11.23	Lazio - Roma	0:0
19.03.23	Lazio - Roma	1:0
06.11.22	Roma - Lazio	0:1

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