Match Info

Serie A - Round 3

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia)

Referee: Tremolada P. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+


	Sassuolo		Lazio

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.6	3.5	2.05
	3.7	3.45	2.02	Watch
	3.75	3.6	2.06
	3.4	3.3	2.05
	3.85	3.61	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.72 ↑ (3.61)	3.48 ↓ (3.63)	2.04 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sassuolo
25.7%

Draw
27.5%

Lazio
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

26.3%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

25.9%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sassuolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.8%	19.4%	77.8%

Sassuolo - Lazio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Sassuolo (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Sassuolo (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lazio will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lazio will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Sassuolo (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Lazio (votes: 15 - 88.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Muric A. (G) 6. Walukiewicz S. 21. Idzes J. 80. Muharemovic T. 3. Doig J. 90. Kone I. 18. Matic N. 40. Vranckx A. 10. Berardi D. (C) 99. Pinamonti A. 45. Lauriente A.	94. Provedel I. (G) 77. Marusic A. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 17. Tavares N. 8. Guendouzi M. 6. Rovella N. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 22. Cancellieri M. 11. Castellanos T. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)
Substitutes
11. Boloca D. 5. Cande F. 9. Cheddira W. 25. Coulibaly W. 20. Fadera A. 44. Iannoni E. 35. Lipani L. 24. Moro L. 15. Pieragnolo E. 77. Pierini N. 19. Romagna F. 12. Satalino G. (G) 42. Thorstvedt K. 13. Turati S. (G) 7. Volpato C.	21. Belahyane R. 32. Cataldi D. 19. Dia B. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 35. Mandas C. (G) 14. Noslin T. 9. Pedro 3. Pellegrini Lu. 25. Provstgaard O.
Coaches
Grosso F.	Sarri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Vranckx A. 🟨,
28', Rovella N. 🟨,
41', Rovella N. ↓, Cataldi D. ↑,
42', Marusic A. 🟨,
45+4', Muharemovic T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Walukiewicz S. ↓, Coulibaly W. ↑,
46', Dele-Bashiru F. ↓, Belahyane R. ↑,
59', Doig J. 🟨,
60', Castellanos T. ↓, Dia B. ↑,
60', Cancellieri M. ↓, Pedro ↑,
63', Lauriente A. ↓, Fadera A. ↑,
63', Vranckx A. ↓, Volpato C. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Fadera A. ⚽, Muharemovic T. (A),
77', Pinamonti A. 🟨,
80', Guendouzi M. ↓, Isaksen G. ↑,
81', Berardi D. ↓, Pieragnolo E. ↑,
81', Pinamonti A. ↓, Cheddira W. ↑,
84', Belahyane R. 🟨,
90', Matic N. 🟨,
90+4', Volpato C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 0.

In recent matches, Sassuolo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lazio is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sassuolo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lazio is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lazio: Gigot S. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Sassuolo: Skjellerup L. (Muscle Injury) Thorstvedt K. (Heel Injury)

There are questionable in Lazio: Lazzari M. (Thigh Injury) Patric (Ankle Injury) Rovella N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:36. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sassuolo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Lazio - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 47.19%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
29.08.25	Cremonese - Sassuolo	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Sassuolo - Catanzaro	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brest - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
05.08.25	Empoli - Sassuolo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWTT
- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
31.08.25	Lazio - Verona	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Como - Lazio	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Lazio - Atromitos Athens	2:0 ✺
09.08.25	Burnley - Lazio	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Galatasaray - Lazio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
26.05.24	Lazio - Sassuolo	1:1
21.10.23	Sassuolo - Lazio	0:2
03.05.23	Lazio - Sassuolo	2:0
15.01.23	Sassuolo - Lazio	0:2
02.04.22	Lazio - Sassuolo	2:1
12.12.21	Sassuolo - Lazio	2:1
Club Friendly
14.08.21	Lazio - Sassuolo	1:1

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