Match Info

Date: 6 October 2022, Thursday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Poznań)

Referee: Bognar T. (Hun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Lech Poznań		Hapoel Beer Sheva

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	4
	1.9	3.4	3.9
	1.9	3.55	4.1
	1.9	3.45	3.9
	1.94	3.53	4.19
	1.86	3.58	3.95
	1.96	3.55	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (1.93)	3.51 ↓ (3.52)	4.01 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
49.4%

Draw
27%

Hapoel Beer Sheva
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

26.5%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

26.3%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Hapoel Beer Sheva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hapoel Beer Sheva than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.5%	8.5%	17%

Lech Poznań - Hapoel Beer Sheva Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 35 - 74.5%). Hapoel Beer Sheva will win (votes: 8 - 17%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 62% – 87%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Lech has currently - 3, has a very small chance of 1st (4%), has a good chance of 2nd (58%), has a chance of 3rd (27%), has a chance of round of 16 (29%), has a small chance of qtrs (12%), has a very small chance of semis (4%), has a very small chance of final (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Hapoel Beer Sheva has currently - 1, has a very small chance of 1st (<1%), has a chance of 2nd (28%), has a chance of 3rd (41%), has a small chance of round of 16 (13%), has a very small chance of qtrs (5%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 49, very big importance 100, big match rating 74. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Lech is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hapoel Beer Sheva is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lech will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Lech: Salamon B. (Muscle Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Lech won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Lech won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.10.22	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	0:0 ✺
18.09.22	Warta Poznań - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	Lech Poznań - Austria Wien	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.09.22	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Villarreal - Lech Poznań	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWWTL
- Hapoel Beer Sheva
Israeli Ligat haAl
01.10.22	Maccabi Netanya - Hapoel Beer Sheva	1:2 ✺
18.09.22	Hapoel Beer Sheva - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	Hapoel Beer Sheva - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
Israeli Ligat haAl
11.09.22	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Hapoel Beer Sheva	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Austria Wien - Hapoel Beer Sheva	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.06.18	Lech Poznań - Hapoel Beer Sheva	2:1
23.06.17	Lech Poznań - Hapoel Beer Sheva	3:0

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