Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 30

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Nagamine K. (Jpn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Strike, Strike
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.38	3.45	2.68
	2.35	3.6	3.05
	2.43	3.55	2.83	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.5
	2.38	3.42	2.73	Watch
	2.48	3.14	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.48)	3.45 ↑ (3.14)	2.71 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
38.8%

Draw
26.9%

Raków Częstochowa
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

28.2%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

29%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Raków will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T. 15. Dyachuk M. (C) 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. 5. Zhelizko I. 8. Cirkovic A. 89. Bobcek T. 79. Sezonienko K.	48. Zych O. (G) 27. Dawidowicz P. 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. (C) 6. Repka O. 5. Bulat M. 20. Silva J. C. 9. Makuch P. 18. Brunes J. 39. Brusberg I.
Substitutes
49. Bambecki I. 23. Kalahur M. 2. Kludka B. 76. Mavraj I. 99. Neugebauer T. 4. Pllana B. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 17. Tsarenko A. 7. Viunnyk B. 1. Weirauch S. (G)	22. Abraham O. 11. Adriano 24. Arsenic Z. 30. Kochergin V. 10. Lopez I. 44. Mircetic B. 2. Mosor A. 21. Napieraj J. 8. Pienko T. 17. Rocha L. 1. Trelowski K. (G) 29. Zolneczko W. (G)
Coaches
Carver J.	Tomczyk L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Bobcek T. (Penalty Awarded),
20', 1 - 1, Repka O. ⚽,
44', Sezonienko K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Brusberg I. ↓, Pienko T. ↑,
53', Mena C. 🟨,
56', Tudor F. 🟨,
66', Svarnas S. 🟨,
72', Makuch P. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
72', Tudor F. ↓, Adriano ↑,
83', Bulat M. ↓, Abraham O. ↑,
83', Silva J. C. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
86', Wojtowicz T. ↓, Kludka B. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Brunes J. ⚽, Abraham O. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 0.

Lechia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Raków is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lechia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Raków has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Raków: Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Lopez I. (Inactive) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Struski K. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:30. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 1:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Rakow	10	1	0	9	13:25	-12	3

Last Results with these Odds

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.03%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Piast Gliwice	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Wisła Płock - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Korona Kielce	4:2 ✺
21.03.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	GKS Katowice - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLWWL
- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Motor Lublin - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
09.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - GKS Katowice	5:4 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Widzew Łódź	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Rzeszów	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
03.03.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	3:1
23.08.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa	1:2
28.04.23	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	4:0
15.10.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa	0:3
Club Friendly
22.06.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa	1:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.05.22	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	3:0

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