Match Info

Division 1 - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Jenda M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Lechia Gdańsk		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.90	4.00
	1.65	3.90	4.20
	1.68	3.80	3.80
	1.70	4.14	4.44
	1.96	3.86	3.39	Watch
	1.68	4.05	4.35
	1.72	4.06	4.16
	1.65	3.85	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.87)	3.95 ↑ (3.27)	4.04 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
53.8%

Draw
23.3%

Stal Mielec
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

27.1%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

25%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lechia Gdańsk's performance.

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lechia (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holewinski A. (G) 19. Kopasek S. 4. Lopata K. 21. Beskorovaynyi D. 3. Malov D. 33. Wojtowicz T. 99. Neugebauer T. (C) 6. Ivanov H. 7. Dodaj K. 13. Shakh A. 97. Blanuta V.	41. Chrapusta P. (G) 2. Kukulowicz B. 5. Matynia H. 38. Wyparlo M. 23. Getinger K. 47. Oure S. 14. Koscielny K. 32. Gerbowski F. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 10. Domanski M. (C) 11. Odolak K.
Substitutes
8. Adkonis J. 17. Bambecki I. 9. Glogowski M. 40. Madej W. 30. Mena J. 90. Sonko B. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 22. Weirauch S. (G) 23. Ziolkowski A.	7. Cebula M. 78. Cybulski K. 19. Gmur T. 99. Gostomski M. (G) 8. Niedzwiedz N. 88. Prajsnar P. 77. Sadlocha K. 6. Sommerfeld K. 29. Tupaj P.
Coaches
Lupashko V.	Skiba D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Shakh A. ⚽, Wojtowicz T. (A),
15', Wyparlo M. 🟨,
23', Shakh A. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Oure S. ⚽, Wyparlo M. (A),
43', Neugebauer T. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Kopasek S. ⚽, Shakh A. (A),
2nd Half (5 - 0)
46', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Tupaj P. ↑,
46', Kukulowicz B. ↓, Cybulski K. ↑,
49', 3 - 1, Shakh A. ⚽,
59', Wojtowicz T. ↓, Mena J. ↑,
63', 4 - 1, Ivanov H. ⚽, Shakh A. (A),
64', Gerbowski F. ↓, Niedzwiedz N. ↑,
64', Domanski M. ↓, Gmur T. ↑,
64', Koscielny K. ↓, Prajsnar P. ↑,
66', 5 - 1, Dodaj K. ⚽,
71', Neugebauer T. ↓, Szczepankiewicz B. ↑,
71', Shakh A. ↓, Adkonis J. ↑,
75', 6 - 1, Blanuta V. ⚽, Dodaj K. (A),
78', Matynia H. 🟨,
79', Dodaj K. ↓, Bambecki I. ↑,
79', Blanuta V. ↓, Sonko B. ↑,
84', Niedzwiedz N. 🟨,
90+1', 7 - 1, Sonko B. ⚽, Adkonis J. (A),

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 11th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 3.

Lechia is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Stal Mielec is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Stal Mielec may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Lechia holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Lechia in today's match, at odds of 1.98.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Lechia has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 16:11 (averaging 2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lechia against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 11:6 goals (averaging 2.8:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Lechia Gdansk: 11.59% Stal Mielec: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	17:15	2	13
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Stal Mielec - the odds 3.47 are the expected chance of winning is 25.53%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Division 1
13.09.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Miedź Legnica	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
01.09.26	Kluczbork - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
29.08.26	Polonia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	2:4 ✺
21.08.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Siedlce	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WLWWW
- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
14.09.26	Stal Mielec - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Stal Mielec - Odra Opole	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
02.09.26	Górnik Łęczna - Stal Mielec	4:3 penalties ✺
Polish Division 1
29.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
14.04.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	3:2
05.10.24	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
14.05.23	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0
30.10.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	1:0
08.05.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	3:2
20.11.21	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	3:3
27.02.21	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	0:1

Upcoming Matches