Match Info

Division 1 - Round 6

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion ROSRRiT (Siedlce)

Referee: Pazdecki P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Pogoń Siedlce		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.25
	2.80	3.40	2.25
	2.8	3.35	2.3
	2.9	3.55	2.41
	3.01	3.44	2.27	Watch
	2.85	3.45	2.35
	2.82	3.45	2.35	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (2.99)	3.4 ↓ (3.42)	2.3 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Siedlce
32.7%

Draw
27.2%

Stal Mielec
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

27.3%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

26.3%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Siedlce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 29. Trepka L. 26. Kendzia F. 4. Szur P. 2. Mis K. 21. Kobusinski S. 16. Poczobut B. 31. Dzieciol E. 56. Demianiuk C. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C) 9. Rosolek M.	99. Gostomski M. (G) 2. Kukulowicz B. 94. Kwiecien B. 44. Puerto I. 23. Getinger K. (C) 19. Gmur T. 32. Gerbowski F. 14. Koscielny K. 78. Cybulski K. 7. Cebula M. 90. Kruszelnicki P.
Substitutes
14. Jakubik D. 6. Kizyma M. 22. Klimek P. 10. Makowski R. 17. Marzec M. 47. Swierczewski B. 72. Szczytniewski S. 1. Tomkiel J. (G) 95. Zielonka N.	41. Chrapusta P. (G) 10. Domanski M. 5. Matynia H. 70. Musiolik S. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 47. Oure S. 88. Prajsnar P. 29. Tupaj P. 38. Wyparlo M.
Coaches
Nocon A.	Skiba D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', Dzieciol E. 🟨,
22', Szur P. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Szur P. ⚽, Szuprytowski D. (A),
35', 2 - 0, Kobusinski S. ⚽, Mis K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Koscielny K. ↓, Musiolik S. ↑,
46', Gmur T. ↓, Prajsnar P. ↑,
69', Cebula M. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
69', Cybulski K. ↓, Oure S. ↑,
69', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Matynia H. ↑,
69', Demianiuk C. ↓, Marzec M. ↑,
73', Kukulowicz B. 🟨,
77', Rosolek M. ↓, Zielonka N. ↑,
77', Dzieciol E. ↓, Kizyma M. ↑,
86', Kobusinski S. ↓, Klimek P. ↑,
86', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Makowski R. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Siedlce won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Stal Mielec may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Siedlce won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Siedlce won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Stal Mielec: 0.41% Pogon Siedlce: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Pogon Siedlce	8	3	3	2	9:7	2	12
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Pogoń Siedlce - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 31.28%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
21.08.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Siedlce	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
01.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Pogoń Siedlce - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWTLT
- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
23.08.26	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	4:0 ✺
16.08.26	Stal Mielec - Polonia Bytom	5:2 ✺
08.08.26	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Stal Mielec - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	3:3 ✺
26.07.26	Unia Skierniewice - Stal Mielec	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
15.05.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	1:3
08.11.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	0:0
Polish Cup
25.09.18	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	2:1
Polish Division 1
17.03.18	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	1:2
23.08.17	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	2:3
04.06.17	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	1:2
23.11.16	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	1:0

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