Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 30

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday


	Leek Town		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.3	2.05
	3.54	3.9	1.83
	3.25	3.59	2.07	Watch
	3.6	3.4	1.8
	3.2	3.38	2.03
	3.66	3.6	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (3.02)	3.53 (3.53)	1.94 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leek Town
26.9%

Draw
25.9%

Gainsborough Trinity
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

26.3%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

25.7%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leek Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Porter A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 7).

Leek has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gainsborough is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Leek may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Leek won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Leek won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Gainsborough	10	5	1	4	20:14	6	16
17	Leek	11	2	4	5	22:23	-1	10

Last Results with these Odds

Leek Town - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.73%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
31.01.26	Ilkeston - Leek Town	1:3 ✺
24.01.26	Hednesford Town - Leek Town	1:0 ✺
20.01.26	Leek Town - Hyde United	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Leek Town - Cleethorpes Town	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Leek Town - United of Manchester	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTWL
- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
03.02.26	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Hednesford Town	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:0 ✺
01.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Cleethorpes Town	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	Guiseley - Gainsborough Trinity	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
26.04.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Leek Town	2:1
24.08.24	Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2

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