Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 31

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganes)

Referee: Orellana M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Leganés		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.9
	1.82	3.4	4.25	Watch
	1.85	3.52	4.77
	1.86	3.5	4.36	Watch
	1.83	3.25	4.4
	1.83	3.46	4.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.78)	3.4 ↓ (3.7)	4.39 ↓ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leganés
51.2%

Draw
27.5%

Ceuta
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

25.6%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

29%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

The chances for Ceuta have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leganés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Leganés - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Leganés will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leganés: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soriano J. (C) 6. Aguilar Lopez G. 5. Miquel I. 2. Marvel 15. Franquesa E. 24. Diawara A. 26. Guirao C. 8. Cisse S. 11. Duk 23. Millan A. 10. Cruz J.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 16. Redruello Nimo C. 6. Hernandez C. (C) 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 14. Bodiger Y. 5. Youness 12. Illescas M. 7. Ahmed A. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 22. Kone K.
Substitutes
12. Asue L. 21. Campos A. 22. Figueredo S. 19. Garcia D. 17. Garcia N. 31. Garrido J. (G) 43. Herrero J. 36. Leiva M. 16. Melero G. 20. Plano O. 9. Rodriguez D. 13. San Roman M. (G)	17. Almenara G. 26. Bassinga A. 34. Betancourt A. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 18. de la Fuente K. 32. Gonzalez S. 30. Josema 1. Lopez P. (G) 10. Rodriguez C. 2. Sanchez M. 11. Schor I.
Coaches
Oca I.	Romero J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Fernandez Sanchez M. (Penalty Awarded),
19', Illescas M. 🟨,
33', Youness 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Diawara A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Kone K. ↓, de la Fuente K. ↑,
46', Aguilar Lopez G. ↓, Leiva M. ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Cisse S. ⚽, Cruz J. (A),
50', Guirao C. 🟨,
57', Redruello Nimo C. ↓, Schor I. ↑,
62', Millan A. ↓, Asue L. ↑,
62', Guirao C. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
65', Leiva M. 🟨,
70', Diawara A. 🟨,
73', Leiva M. ↓, Figueredo S. ↑,
75', Bodiger Y. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
75', Youness ↓, Sanchez M. ↑,
78', Cruz J. 🟨,
83', Ahmed A. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Cruz J. ⚽, Duk (A),
87', Cruz J. ↓, Melero G. ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Sanchez M. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 2, Melero G. ⚽, Cisse S. (A),
90+4', Figueredo S. 🟨,
90+8', 5 - 2, Melero G. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 and 9).

Leganés is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ceuta has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Leganés is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Leganés: Lopez R. (Ankle Injury) Pena R. (Muscle Injury) Pulido R. (Knee Injury) Saenz J. (Injury)

There will not play in Ceuta: Anuar (Injury) Campana J. (Injury) Domenech M. (Injury) Jamelli (Ankle Injury) Zalazar K. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leganés won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Leganes	9	3	2	4	6:14	-8	11
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga2
14.03.26	Valladolid - Leganés	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	Leganés - Eibar	0:1 ✺
02.03.26	Sporting de Gijón - Leganés	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Leganés - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Córdoba - Leganés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTTL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
14.03.26	Ceuta - Deportivo A Coruña	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Las Palmas - Ceuta	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Mirandés - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Ceuta - Córdoba	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Ceuta - Granada	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
16.11.25	Ceuta - Leganés	1:2

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