Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganes)

Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	ESPN
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	Now Player, Now Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, RCTI+, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Philippines	beIN Connect, Setanta Sports
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2, CANAL+ Sport 5
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 1, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Taiwan	DAZN
Tanzania	Azam Sports 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online
World	Disney+, Prima+ app, SportsMax App


	Leganés		Valencia

	1	X	2
	3	2.88	2.75	Watch
	2.95	2.8	2.7
	3	2.85	2.8	Watch
	3.08	2.85	2.85
	3.1	2.79	2.83	Watch
	3	2.8	2.75
	3.13	2.91	2.84	Watch
	3	2.85	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.51)	2.84 ↓ (3.17)	2.79 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Leganés
31.7%

Draw
33.8%

Valencia
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

30.3%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

31.3%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leganés's form might have worsened.

Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leganés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16%	60%	24%

Leganés - Valencia Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Leganés will win (votes: 8 - 16.7%). Valencia will win (votes: 10 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 30 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 48.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Dmitrovic M. (G) 12. Rosier V. 6. Gonzalez S. (C) 3. Saenz J. 20. Hernandez J. 17. Neyou Y. 8. Cisse S. 11. Cruz J. 21. Lopez R. 2. Altimira A. 18. Haller S.	25. Mamardashvili G. (G) 20. Foulquier D. 3. Mosquera C. 15. Tarrega C. 24. Gasiorowski Y. 12. Correia T. 7. Canos S. 18. Pepelu (C) 10. Almeida A. 22. Rioja L. 9. Duro H.
Substitutes
36. Alvin (G) 14. Brasanac D. 24. Chicco J. 9. de la Fuente M. 15. Franquesa E. 19. Garcia D. 4. Porozo J. 10. Raba D. 7. Rodriguez O. 1. Soriano J. (G)	5. Barrenechea E. 2. Caufriez M. 13. Dimitrievski S. (G) 17. Gomez D. 8. Guerra J. 6. Guillamon H. 16. Lopez D. 23. Perez F. 39. Ro 30. Valera G.
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Baraja R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Rosier V. 🟨,
32', Tarrega C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Neyou Y. 🟨,
63', Canos S. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
63', Haller S. ↓, de la Fuente M. ↑,
67', Pepelu 🟨,
71', Neyou Y. ↓, Brasanac D. ↑,
73', Duro H. ↓, Gomez D. ↑,
73', Almeida A. ↓, Barrenechea E. ↑,
84', Cruz J. ↓, Rodriguez O. ↑,
84', Cisse S. ↓, Chicco J. ↑,
86', Rioja L. ↓, Valera G. ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leganés won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Valencia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Leganés have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Leganés: Garcia N. (Injury)

There will not play in Valencia: Diakhaby M. (Knee Injury) Domenech J. (Muscle Injury) Gaya J. (Muscle Injury) Mir R. (Muscle Injury) Vazquez J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Leganés: Neyou Y. (Muscle Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Leganés won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 7:15 (average 0.7:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Leganés won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:7 (average 0.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Leganés	1:1 ✺
22.09.24	Getafe - Leganés	1:1 ✺
19.09.24	Leganés - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
13.09.24	Betis - Leganés	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.24	Fuenlabrada - Leganés	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TTLLW
- CF Valencia
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.24	Real Sociedad - Valencia	3:0 ✺
24.09.24	Valencia - Osasuna	0:0 ✺
21.09.24	Valencia - Girona	2:0 ✺
15.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Valencia	3:0 ✺
31.08.24	Valencia - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
12.07.20	Leganés - Valencia	1:0
22.09.19	Valencia - Leganés	1:1
24.02.19	Leganés - Valencia	1:1
20.10.18	Valencia - Leganés	1:1
01.04.18	Leganés - Valencia	0:1
04.11.17	Valencia - Leganés	3:0
28.02.17	Valencia - Leganés	1:0

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