Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 27

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	17:30	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	15:30	Sport TV1
Ukraine	17:30	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	12:30	Antel TV


	Famalicão		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.9	5.75	Watch
	1.58	4.1	5
	1.65	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.65	4.1	5.36
	1.62	4.13	5.17	Watch
	1.62	3.8	4.8	Watch
	1.68	4.11	5.25	Watch
	1.73	3.8	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.73)	3.99 ↑ (3.8)	5.1 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
57.8%

Draw
23.7%

Nacional
18.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.4%

24.7%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

24.5%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Famalicão - Nacional Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Famalicão (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Famalicão will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.	1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 34. Leo Santos (C) 38. Ze Vitor 24. Vallier L. 15. Labidi C. 6. Matheus Dias 8. Baeza M. 10. Daniel Junior 19. Joao L. 11. Paulinho Boia
Substitutes
9. Abubakar U. 18. Beney R. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 28. Pedro Bondo 8. Pena M. 3. Realpe L. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	88. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 99. Pablo Ruan 26. Silva J. 22. Soares F. 18. Sousa A. 7. Witi
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Matheus Dias 🟨,
40', Sa G. 🟨,
43', Vallier L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', 1 - 0, Ba I. ⚽, Sa G. (A),
77', Matheus Dias ↓, Soares F. ↑,
77', Labidi C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
77', Baeza M. ↓, Witi ↑,
78', De Amorim M. 🟨,
79', De Amorim M. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
79', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
84', Paulinho Boia ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
87', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
89', Sa G. ↓, Realpe L. ↑,
90+1', Daniel Junior 🟨,
90+2', Carevic L. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.

Famalicão is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nacional has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Famalicão is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	14:11	3	10
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	10:18	-8	7

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Famalicao: 0.29% Nacional: 0.18%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
14.03.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Rio Ave - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
23.02.26	Famalicão - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWTWL
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
15.03.26	Nacional - Estoril Praia	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Moreirense - Nacional	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Nacional - Braga	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Arouca - Nacional	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Nacional - Porto	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1
01.03.25	Nacional - Famalicão	2:1
29.09.24	Famalicão - Nacional	0:0
16.05.21	Famalicão - Nacional	3:0
30.01.21	Nacional - Famalicão	2:1
Portuguese Liga 2
04.02.18	Famalicão - Nacional	3:2
23.08.17	Nacional - Famalicão	3:0

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