Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV4


	Estoril Praia		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.28	3.25	3.05	Watch
	2.25	3.43	3.19
	4.39	1.60	4.77	Watch
				Watch
	2.29	3.24	3.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.16)	2.94 ↓ (3.38)	3.46 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
37.2%

Draw
34%

Nacional
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

27.7%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

27.9%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estoril Praia's form might have worsened.

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estoril Praia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	18.2%	36.4%

Estoril Praia - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Nacional (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Nacional (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 44. Boma K. 25. Bacher F. 5. Tsoungui A. 22. Carvalho P. 6. Jandro 10. Holsgrove J. 20. Costa G. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 14. Begraoui Y. 19. Lacximicant A.	1. Kaique Pereira (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 28. Liziero 6. Matheus Dias 15. Labidi C. 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J. 99. Pablo Ruan
Substitutes
90. Brito T. 4. Ferro 17. Garcia F. 7. Lominadze N. 9. Marques A. 55. Parente T. 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 16. Turk M. (G)	33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 16. Nunez A. 26. Silva J. 22. Soares F. 18. Sousa A. 30. Watts 7. Witi
Coaches
Cathro I.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽,
40', Ramirez J. 🟨,
45+2', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jandro ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Begraoui Y. (Pen),
63', Costa G. 🟨,
66', Costa G. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
67', Labidi C. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
67', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
72', Lacximicant A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
72', Carvalho P. ↓, Marques A. ↑,
81', Begraoui Y. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
85', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
85', Holsgrove J. 🟨,
85', Paulinho Boia ↓, Watts ↑,
90+7', Carvalho J. 🟨,
90+8', Jose Gomes 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Estoril may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Estoril is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Estoril: Xeka (Injury)

There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Knee Injury) Fernandes I. (Inactive) Lucas Franca (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Estoril: Guitane R. (Injury) Sanchez R. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional - the odds 3.26 are the expected chance of winning is 28.75%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Belenenses - Estoril Praia	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.10.25	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Estoril Praia - AVS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLLW
- Atletico Nacional
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Rebordelo - Nacional	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Nacional - Moreirense	3:2 ✺
28.09.25	Braga - Nacional	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Porto - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
15.02.25	Nacional - Estoril Praia	2:2
15.09.24	Estoril Praia - Nacional	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
25.07.21	Nacional - Estoril Praia	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.19	Estoril Praia - Nacional	1:2
Club Friendly
14.07.18	Estoril Praia - Nacional	2:1
Liga Portugal
09.04.17	Estoril Praia - Nacional	0:1
26.11.16	Nacional - Estoril Praia	0:1

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