Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Rosa D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
World	Onefootball


	Nacional		Braga

	1	X	2
	6	4.33	1.46	Watch
	5	4	1.6
	5.9	4.25	1.49	Watch
	6.47	4.53	1.51
	6.11	4.33	1.52	Watch
	5.75	4	1.5	Watch
	6.19	4.47	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.92 ↑ (5.8)	4.27 ↑ (4.17)	1.52 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
15.9%

Draw
22%

Braga
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.3%

22.7%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.9%

22.2%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

The ML Model estimate for Nacional aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Nacional - Braga Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Braga (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Braga will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Braga will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 34. Leo Santos 33. Goncalves C. 24. Vallier L. 28. Liziero 6. Matheus Dias 18. Sousa A. (C) 27. Gabriel Veron 9. Ramirez J. 11. Paulinho Boia	1. Hornicek L. (G) 37. Barisic A. 14. Lagerbielke G. 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 2. Gomez V. 50. Rodrigues D. 27. Grillitsch F. 77. Martinez G. 10. Zalazar R. 18. Victor P. 21. Horta R. (C)
Substitutes
8. Baeza M. 10. Daniel Junior 88. Deivison 19. Joao L. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 99. Pablo Ruan 26. Silva J. 30. Watts 7. Witi	41. da Rocha Y. 20. Dorgeles M. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 5. Lelo L. 8. Moutinho J. 39. Navarro F. 15. Oliveira P. 12. Sa T. (G) 34. Tiknaz D. E.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Zalazar R. ⚽, Victor P. (A),
13', Grillitsch F. 🟨,
26', Matheus Dias 🟨,
28', Horta R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Barisic A. ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Paulinho Boia ⚽, Sousa A. (A),
66', Martinez G. ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
67', Grillitsch F. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
72', Rodrigues D. 🟨,
74', Sousa A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
74', Gabriel Veron ↓, Witi ↑,
77', Vallier L. 🟨,
84', Rodrigues D. ↓, Tiknaz D. E. ↑,
84', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 2, Zalazar R. (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Vallier L. ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
90+8', Liziero ↓, Joao L. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.

Nacional has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Braga is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Braga is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J. (Inactive) Fernandes I. (Injury) Labidi C. (Red Card) Lucas Franca (Inactive) Soares F. (Injury) Ulisses (Injury) Ze Vitor (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A. (Foot Injury) Gorby (Muscle Injury) Niakate S. (Muscle Injury) Vitor Carvalho (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 16:51. (average 0.8:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:20. (average 0.6:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Arouca - Nacional	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Nacional - Porto	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Nacional - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Nacional - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTLW
- SC Braga
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Gil Vicente - Braga	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Braga - Rio Ave	3:0 ✺
02.02.26	AVS - Braga	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Braga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Braga - Nacional	4:2
Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Braga - Nacional	0:1
21.02.25	Braga - Nacional	1:0
20.09.24	Nacional - Braga	0:3
Portuguese League Cup
22.12.23	Nacional - Braga	1:3
Taça de Portugal
25.04.23	Braga - Nacional	2:2
12.04.23	Nacional - Braga	0:5

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