Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Final

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Leiston		Guiseley

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.60	1.83
	3.60	4.00	1.90
	3.60	3.85	1.73
	3.53	4.08	1.81
	3.5	4.09	1.85	Watch
	3.25	3.80	1.78
	3.63	3.73	1.90	Watch
	3.45	3.65	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↓ (3.81)	3.85 ↑ (3.8)	1.83 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiston
26.1%

Draw
23.8%

Guiseley
50.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.9%

24%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

23.3%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Guiseley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiston than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Leiston - Guiseley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
32', 0 - 1, Owen E. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Thewlis J. ⚽,
41', 0 - 3, Emmett J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Leiston is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Guiseley is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Leiston could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Guiseley holding a narrow advantage.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leiston
English Southern League Central Division
10.10.26	Racing Club Warwick - Leiston	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Leiston - Coventry United	3:1 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
29.09.26	Real Bedford - Leiston	3:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Leiston - Dartford	0:3 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
22.09.26	Leiston - Peterborough Sports	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWLLL
- Guiseley
English NPL Premier Division
10.10.26	Avro - Guiseley	0:1 ✺
06.10.26	Ilkeston - Guiseley	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Guiseley - Bradford Park Avenue	1:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
29.09.26	Alfreton Town - Guiseley	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Guiseley - Quorn	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leiston
English Southern League Central Division
31.10.26	Leiston - Alvechurch	✺
- Guiseley
English NPL Premier Division
31.10.26	Redcar Athletic - Guiseley	✺

Leiston - Guiseley