What is the expert prediction for Leixões vs Lusitânia?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Leixões vs Lusitânia. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

How to watch Leixões vs Lusitânia live?

Check our broadcast section for official streaming options and live coverage details.

Leixões vs Lusitânia Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, May 17, 2026)

Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Ferreira V. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Leixões		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	5
	2	3.3	3.1
	1.55	4.15	5.15
	1.55	4.3	5.7
	1.62	4.06	4.98	Watch
	1.5	3.8	5
	1.55	4.15	5.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (2.07)	3.97 ↑ (3.22)	4.89 ↑ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Leixões
57.6%

Draw
23.4%

Lusitânia
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

29%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

28.2%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leixões's performance.

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lusitânia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leixões that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lusitânia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

banner

Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Leixões (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Leixões will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leixões (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morro M. (G) 2. Fonseca F. 14. Matheus Costa 3. Figueiredo L. 30. Serif N. 66. Balde A. 20. Miguel Sousa 22. Araujo C. 7. Werton 35. Rochez B. (C) 33. Luccas Paraizo	23. Ribeiro M. (G) 28. Mesquita T. (C) 22. Faria B. 6. Alhassan I. 29. Cerveira T. 8. Tokinho Doria 88. Teixeira M. 60. Danny 21. Joao Vasco 9. Silva J. 77. Tiago Dias
Substitutes
11. Agra S. 47. Cardoso J. (G) 13. Evrard Zag 63. Faria H. 19. Moshood M. 71. Paulinho 10. Paulite 15. Simaozinho 91. Valente R.	74. Braga G. 80. Manel 7. Martins R. 24. Mimito 40. Paiva L. 11. Pereira M. 99. Platiny 16. Rocha L. 32. Vitor Hugo (G)
Coaches
Fangueiro C.	Miguel Pedro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Ribeiro M. 🟥,
19', Tiago Dias ↓, Vitor Hugo ↑,
27', Luccas Paraizo 🟨,
27', Alhassan I. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Rochez B. (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', Miguel Sousa 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Matheus Costa 🟨,
52', Alhassan I. 🟨,
59', Silva J. ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
59', Teixeira M. ↓, Manel ↑,
59', Joao Vasco ↓, Mimito ↑,
65', Miguel Sousa ↓, Evrard Zag ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Rochez B. ⚽,
77', Werton ↓, Paulite ↑,
77', Luccas Paraizo ↓, Valente R. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Pereira M. ⚽,
90+1', Rochez B. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
90+2', Balde A. ↓, Moshood M. ↑,
90+2', Tokinho Doria ↓, Platiny ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 and 11).

Leixões is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Lusitânia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leixões is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).

banner

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leixoes	34	15	5	14	46:55	-9	50
12	Lusitania FC	34	11	10	13	44:52	-8	43

Last Results with these Odds

Leixões - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.12%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
09.05.26	Chaves - Leixões	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Marítimo - Leixões	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Leixões - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Porto B - Leixões	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Leixões - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLWWW
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
09.05.26	Lusitânia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Oliveirense - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Lusitânia - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Portimonense - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
13.04.26	Lusitânia - Porto B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.01.26	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2
Club Friendly
10.07.24	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2
19.07.23	Lusitânia - Leixões	1:2
05.08.18	Lusitânia - Leixões	3:2

Leixões - Lusitânia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide