Match Info

Date: 23 January 2021, Saturday


	Leones		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.2
	2.18	2.95	3.2
	2.11	3.1	3.2
	2.27	3.2	3.44
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.19	3.16	3.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.06)	3.05 ↓ (3.2)	3.26 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones
41.9%

Draw
30%

Fortaleza
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.1%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

19.9%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leones - Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Leones is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Fortaleza is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leones could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Leones will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Leones won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Leones won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones FC
Colombian Primera B
18.12.20	Valledupar - Leones	0:0 ✺
12.12.20	Leones - Bogotá	0:1 ✺
06.12.20	Internacional de Palmira - Leones	2:1 ✺
30.11.20	Leones - Internacional de Palmira	2:3 ✺
25.11.20	Bogotá - Leones	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLLT
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
21.01.21	Fortaleza - Santos	2:0 ✺
17.01.21	Internacional RS - Fortaleza	4:2 ✺
09.01.21	Fortaleza - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
06.01.21	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
26.12.20	Fortaleza - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
08.02.20	Fortaleza - Leones	2:2
20.08.19	Leones - Fortaleza	0:0
02.03.19	Fortaleza - Leones	4:1
12.08.17	Leones - Fortaleza	1:0
25.03.17	Fortaleza - Leones	1:0
30.11.15	Fortaleza - Leones	3:0
08.11.15	Leones - Fortaleza	0:3

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