Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 5

Date: 29 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui (Itagui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play


	Leones		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.75	Watch
	4.05	3.45	1.8
	4.21	3.55	1.81
	10.73	5.58	1.25	Watch
	4	3.2	1.8
	4.28	3.34	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (4.09)	3.75 ↑ (3.5)	1.7 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones
18.3%

Draw
25.4%

Independiente Medellín
56.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

26%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

25.9%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Leones - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: Independiente Medellín will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Chaverra L. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Montoya S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Leones has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ind Medellín is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ind Medellín is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Leones won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones FC
Colombian Copa
16.05.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Leones	0:0 ✺
12.05.26	Leones - Orsomarso	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Leones	4:1 ✺
Colombian Primera B
18.04.26	Orsomarso - Leones	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Leones - Real Santander	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 TWLTW
- Independiente Medellín
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
20.05.26	Cusco - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
Colombian Copa
15.05.26	Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
11.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Flamengo	Abandoned ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWTW?

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
09.09.18	Independiente Medellín - Leones	1:1
19.03.18	Leones - Independiente Medellín	0:2
Colombian Copa
06.05.15	Leones - Independiente Medellín	0:1

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