Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Leones Negros UdeG		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.62	3.3	2.42	Watch
	2.91	3.5	2.41
	2.7	3.55	2.42
	2.5	3.2	2.45
	2.64	3.62	2.42	Watch
	2.62	3.2	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.36)	3.4 ↑ (3.2)	2.42 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros UdeG
34.6%

Draw
27.2%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

28.4%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

29.6%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tepatitlán de Morelos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones Negros UdeG, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tepatitlán de Morelos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Lopez F. (G) 10. Brigido J. 6. Cisneros C. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 3. Flores L. 88. Gonzalez O. 34. Hernandez S. A. 93. Lara M. 4. Ledesma A. (C) 11. Perez J. 2. Sanchez J.	1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 24. Cardona U. 26. Dominguez I. 10. Guzman W. 19. Islas O. 29. Mendoza B. 2. Pinela M. 6. Ruiz A. 20. Samano L. 23. Venegas J.
Substitutes
24. Aguayo J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 82. Meza U. 100. Morales F. 18. Munoz D. 7. Rivera E. 86. Torres D. 87. Valenzuela M. 98. Venegas S. 12. Villa O.	145. Gomez G. 18. Gomez J. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 13. Gonzalez Calderon L. A. 159. Macias L. 152. Ramos D. 11. Reyes J. 8. Samano Salgado F. 30. Talavera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Venegas J. 🟨,
23', Islas O. 🟨,
31', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
42', Hernandez S. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Sanchez J. 🟨,
51', Lara M. 🟨,
54', Cisneros C. ↓, Rivera E. ↑,
54', Gonzalez O. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
64', Lara M. ↓, Villa O. ↑,
65', Brigido J. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
74', Cardona U. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
74', Dominguez I. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
79', Guzman W. 🟨,
81', Mendoza B. ↓, Samano Salgado F. ↑,
86', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Torres D. ↑,
87', Aguilar D. ↓, Gonzalez Calderon L. A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 2.

Leones Negros UdeG is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tepatitlán is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tepatitlán may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
08.02.26	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	5:2 ✺
30.01.26	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Correcaminos UAT	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Irapuato - Leones Negros UdeG	4:1 ✺
11.01.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTLW
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Correcaminos UAT	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Dorados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
23.01.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tapatío	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlante	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1
27.04.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1
24.04.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	2:1
28.02.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1
15.09.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
10.04.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2
12.08.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	0:0

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