Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Gurrea D. (Mex)


	Leones Negros UdeG		Alebrijes de Oaxaca

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.39	4.75	6.3
	1.59	4.4	5.31
	1.38	4.65	7.08	Watch
	1.29	5.55	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.27)	4.84 ↓ (5.58)	6.55 ↓ (8.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros UdeG
66.3%

Draw
19.4%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.8%

16.5%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones Negros UdeG's form might have worsened.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Lopez F. (G) 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 83. Escalante J. 8. Fierro C. 4. Ledesma A. (C) 13. Lopez R. 82. Meza U. 18. Munoz D. 7. Rivera E. 87. Valenzuela M.	35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 4. Alvarez K. (C) 6. Arellano A. 10. Carballo E. 1. Cruz J. 3. Justo A. 11. Mascorro H. 29. Meza S. 8. Morales F. 5. Vazquez Garza H. A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.
Substitutes
10. Brigido J. 25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 3. Flores L. 88. Gonzalez O. 85. Hernandez A. 92. Jimenez B. 81. Madrigal K. 94. Padilla L. 11. Perez J. 86. Torres D.	25. Andrey Marcos 177. Bustos J. 175. Gallinar S. 31. Hernandez Lopez A. A. 7. Lopez D. 17. Nunez D. 33. Olaguez E. 19. Pineda D. 171. Ramirez L. A. (G) 2. Santos E.
Coaches
Sosa L.	Rivera J. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Cruz J. ⚽, Mascorro H. (A),
24', Mascorro H. 🟨,
26', Justo A. 🟨,
34', Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. 🟨,
35', Carballo E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Escalante J. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
57', Fierro C. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
58', Meza U. 🟨,
66', Cruz J. ↓, Pineda D. ↑,
66', Meza S. ↓, Santos E. ↑,
70', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
70', Rivera E. ↓, Torres D. ↑,
76', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
79', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
83', Vazquez Garza H. A. 🟨,
85', Vazquez Garza H. A. ↓, Andrey Marcos ↑,
85', Carballo E. ↓, Olaguez E. ↑,
86', Munoz D. 🟨,
88', Pineda D. 🟨,
90+7', Mascorro H. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 11 and 13)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 3.

Recent form of Leones Negros UdeG has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Leones Negros UdeG is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 5 matches, drew 12 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:22. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.10.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz	2:3 ✺
07.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLT
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.10.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
03.10.25	Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Irapuato	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Dorados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
16.03.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:2
29.09.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2
14.02.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	0:3
03.08.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	5:0
15.03.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2
25.06.22	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:0
19.01.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1

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