The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Leones Negros UdeG 64.9%
Draw 20%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 15.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
66.2%
19.3%
14.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
68.7%
18.6%
14.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (-1%)
Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 21. Gonzalez O. 27. Meza U. 5. Torres U. 10. Brigido J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 20. Gil O. 9. Razo L.
1. Rodas C. (G) 15. Villa P. 4. Alvarez K. (C) 12. Reyes J. 22. Jaimes Rodriguez T. 23. Hernandez A. 20. Ayala D. 27. Sanchez E. 177. Bustos J. 11. Andrey Marcos 8. Barreda I.
Substitutes
15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 3. Flores L. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 167. Nuno M. 11. Perez J. 33. Sepulveda L. 153. Torres D. 31. Valenzuela M.
26. Carreon M. 17. Collazo D. 19. Fadika B. 16. Gallinar S. 18. Gonzalez J. 174. Hernandez S. 5. Lopez E. 25. Martinez D. 21. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.
Coaches
Sosa A.
Hernandez E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Alvarez K. 🟨,
10', Andrey Marcos 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Brigido J. ⚽, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. (A),
17', Rodas C. ↓, Paz Vasquez O. ↑,
42', 1 - 1, Bustos J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Marchand J. 🟨,
54', Gonzalez O. 🟨,
58', Meza U. 🟨,
60', Hernandez A. ↓, Vazquez Hernandez A. ↑,
65', Brigido J. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
65', Hernandez S. A. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
66', Escalante J. 🟨,
71', 1 - 2, Andrey Marcos ⚽,
75', Villa P. 🟨,
76', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
79', Gil O. ↓, Loera K. ↑,
79', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
83', Sanchez E. 🟥,
88', Escalante J. ↓, Nuno M. ↑,
90+3', Villa P. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
90+3', Bustos J. ↓, Collazo D. ↑,
Preview
One of the top-ranked clubs faces a lower-table side fighting for vital survival points (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 15th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 2.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The betting markets point to Leones Negros UdeG as the clear and undisputed favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Leones Negros UdeG has recorded 5 wins, 12 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:21 (averaging 1.4:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Leones Negros UdeG against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss, with 14:8 goals (averaging 1.4:0.8 per game).
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Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 
Gil O. 
Andrey Marcos 
Fadika B. 
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