Match Info

ENGLAND: ISTHMIAN LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION - ROUND 27

Date: 27 January 2024, Saturday


	Lewes		Margate

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.5	6.75
	1.36	4.5	7
	1.37	5.1	6.84
	1.3	5.04	7.95
	1.36	4.5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.7)	4.73 ↑ (3.74)	7.11 ↑ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lewes
67.8%

Draw
19.3%

Margate
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

24.4%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

23.4%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lewes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lewes's performance.

Margate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Margate might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lewes than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lewes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Margate than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Margate could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 18).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lewes won 3.

Lewes is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Margate is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Margate could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lewes is certain favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Lewes won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 21-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Lewes won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lewes FC
English Isthmian League Premier Division
20.01.24	Billericay Town - Lewes	5:0 ✺
15.01.24	Hashtag United - Lewes	2:3 ✺
13.01.24	Lewes - Potters Bar Town	3:0 ✺
06.01.24	Cray Wanderers - Lewes	1:1 ✺
01.01.24	Lewes - Bognor Regis Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWTW
- Margate
English Isthmian League Premier Division
20.01.24	Margate - Bognor Regis Town	0:2 ✺
13.01.24	Margate - Concord Rangers	1:1 ✺
06.01.24	Whitehawk - Margate	3:2 ✺
01.01.24	Margate - Folkestone Invicta	0:2 ✺
26.12.23	Cray Wanderers - Margate	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English Isthmian League Premier Division
04.11.23	Margate - Lewes	2:0
01.04.23	Margate - Lewes	2:2
22.10.22	Lewes - Margate	2:0
29.03.22	Lewes - Margate	2:0
09.10.21	Margate - Lewes	2:6
10.10.20	Lewes - Margate	1:0
24.08.19	Margate - Lewes	2:0

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