Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Referee: Yaya A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Lexington		North Carolina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.2	2.87
	2.18	3.2	3.15
	2.29	3.35	3.17
	2.27	3.22	3.13	Watch
	2.3	3	2.9
	2.23	3.18	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.33)	3.19 ↓ (3.24)	3.06 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
41.1%

Draw
28.8%

North Carolina
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

28.6%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

27.8%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Lexington - North Carolina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - North Carolina (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. North Carolina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Thompson B. (G) 6. Hafferty J. 27. Gilbert G. 5. Burks K. 24. Sargeant K. 80. Williams D. 13. Ferri B. 8. Nick Firmino 72. Rodrigues B. P. 71. Adedokun M. 33. Ajago F.	22. Semmle O. (G) 11. Burner P. 20. Donovan C. 27. Washington B. 5. Craig P. (C) 13. Perez L. 19. Al Qaq A. 15. Maldonado M. 44. Sommersall R. 7. Conway E. 9. Anderson O.
Substitutes
14. Barbir D. 99. Burke C. 11. Epps M. 22. Greene J. 1. Ketterer L. (G) 23. Midence A. 12. Zengue X.	16. Da Costa R. 23. Forbes J. 4. Malou J. 1. McGuire J. (G) 8. Pedro Becker 6. Roberts T. 10. Servania J.
Coaches
Boss T.	Bradford J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Gilbert G. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Ajago F. ⚽, Ferri B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Maldonado M. 🟨,
64', Rodrigues B. P. ↓, Epps M. ↑,
67', Craig P. 🟨,
72', 2 - 0, Nick Firmino ⚽,
73', Anderson O. ↓, Roberts T. ↑,
73', Maldonado M. ↓, Pedro Becker ↑,
77', Adedokun M. ↓, Greene J. ↑,
85', Donovan C. ↓, Da Costa R. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Da Costa R. ⚽,
89', Nick Firmino ↓, Zengue X. ↑,
89', Craig P. ↓, Malou J. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lexington won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lexington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
30.08.25	Las Vegas Lights - Lexington	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Lexington - Oakland Roots	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	San Antonio - Lexington	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Lexington - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
01.08.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Lexington	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWWL
- North Carolina FC
USL Championship
30.08.25	North Carolina - Hartford Athletic	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Las Vegas Lights - North Carolina	1:2 ✺
15.08.25	North Carolina - Detroit City	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	North Carolina - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Louisville City - North Carolina	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
07.10.23	Lexington - North Carolina	0:1
18.06.23	North Carolina - Lexington	2:2

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