Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, NC)

Referee: Hadzic A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	North Carolina		Hartford Athletic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.2
	2.32	3.45	2.72
	2.45	3.63	2.73
	4.08	4.07	1.73	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.3
	2.41	3.36	2.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.01)	3.52 ↑ (3.51)	2.72 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Carolina
37.6%

Draw
27.2%

Hartford Athletic
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

26.4%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Carolina's form might have worsened.

Hartford Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hartford Athletic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Carolina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartford Athletic than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hartford Athletic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

North Carolina - Hartford Athletic Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hartford (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartford (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Semmle O. (G) 11. Burner P. 66. Sundstrom F. 27. Washington B. 55. Hodge T. 10. Servania J. 15. Maldonado M. 44. Sommersall R. 13. Perez L. 8. Pedro Becker 9. Anderson O.	77. Siaha A. (G) 30. Diz A. 4. Scarlett J. 22. Presthus T. 23. Presthus O. 10. Careaga S. 94. Hairston M. 19. Samadia E. 8. Moreira J. 11. Ngalina M. 71. Edwards K.
Substitutes
19. Al Qaq A. 7. Conway E. 5. Craig P. 16. Da Costa R. 20. Donovan C. 1. McGuire J. (G) 99. Roberts T.	13. Berner J. (G) 15. Farrell J. 17. Jimenez J. 6. Makangila B. 5. Njie B. 81. Obalola A. 16. Panayotou J.
Coaches
Bradford J.	Burke B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Careaga S. ⚽,
29', Perez L. 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Anderson O. ⚽, Burner P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
60', Pedro Becker ↓, Conway E. ↑,
61', Moreira J. ↓, Obalola A. ↑,
64', Sundstrom F. 🟨,
67', Perez L. ↓, Roberts T. ↑,
75', Careaga S. ↓, Panayotou J. ↑,
75', Hairston M. ↓, Makangila B. ↑,
75', Edwards K. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Sommersall R. ⚽,
85', Anderson O. ↓, Da Costa R. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Hodge T. (Own goal),
90+3', 2 - 3, Diz A. ⚽, Samadia E. (A),
90+6', Presthus O. ↓, Farrell J. ↑,
90+6', Samadia E. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

North Carolina is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hartford is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

North Carolina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

North Carolina might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, North Carolina won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

North Carolina - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 46.04%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina FC
USL Championship
23.08.25	Las Vegas Lights - North Carolina	1:2 ✺
15.08.25	North Carolina - Detroit City	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	North Carolina - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Louisville City - North Carolina	4:1 ✺
USL Cup
26.07.25	North Carolina - Loudoun United	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWLW
- Hartford Athletic
USL Championship
23.08.25	Hartford Athletic - Rhode Island	3:0 ✺
USL Cup
20.08.25	San Antonio - Hartford Athletic	0:2 ✺
USL Championship
16.08.25	Hartford Athletic - Tulsa	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Birmingham Legion - Hartford Athletic	1:4 ✺
06.08.25	Hartford Athletic - Miami	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
06.06.25	Hartford Athletic - North Carolina	0:1
12.10.24	Hartford Athletic - North Carolina	4:3
29.03.24	North Carolina - Hartford Athletic	2:1
01.06.19	Hartford Athletic - North Carolina	1:1
27.04.19	North Carolina - Hartford Athletic	4:1

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