Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	19:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	08:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	18:00	ESPN
Brazil	19:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	18:00	beIN Connect
Chile	18:00	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	17:00	ESPN
Italy	00:00	Como TV
Mexico	16:00	Disney+
New Zealand	10:00	beIN Connect
Paraguay	18:00	ESPN
Peru	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Uruguay	19:00	Disney+
Usa	18:00	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	18:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Libertad Asuncion		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.7
	2.62	3.05	2.78
	2.75	3.17	2.85
	2.73	3.08	2.77	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.7
	2.78	3.05	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.83)	3.06 ↓ (3.08)	2.75 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
35%

Draw
30.7%

Independiente del Valle
34.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.4%

30.7%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

31.8%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 3. Rojas R. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. 18. Franco I. 8. Carrizo F. 14. Fretes A. 10. Melgarejo L. (C)	1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. (C) 33. Velasco A. 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 11. Perello M. 53. Lerma J. 16. Briones R. 17. Rodriguez A. 9. Gonzalez C.
Substitutes
11. Aguilar G. 26. Caballero H. 28. Fernandez M. 31. Fernandez T. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 22. Martinez H. 27. Molinas A. 2. Ramirez I. 19. Recalde J. 7. Rojas M. 34. Villalba E. 24. Villalba R.	50. Angulo J. 12. Bores E. (G) 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 20. Gomez A. 18. Gongora S. 55. Guagua D. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 31. Pata E. 99. Reasco D. 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Samudio J.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Gonzalez C. ⚽, Loor L. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Melgarejo L. ⚽, Carrizo F. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Franco I. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
51', 1 - 2, Gonzalez C. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
54', Campuzano A. 🟨,
58', Carrizo F. 🟨,
64', Sanabria L. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
64', Carrizo F. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Gonzalez C. ⚽, Alcivar J. (A),
70', Perello M. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
70', Rodriguez A. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
72', Rojas R. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
72', Fretes A. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
77', Lerma J. ↓, Ochoa Y. ↑,
77', Alcivar J. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
81', Gonzalez C. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
85', 2 - 3, Melgarejo L. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Aguilar G. 🟨,
90', Briones R. 🟨,
90+1', Loor L. 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Libertad has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ind del Valle is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ind del Valle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Libertad: Benitez A. (Inactive) Duarte A. (Inactive) Fernandez H. (Injury)

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Arroyo J. P. (Inactive) Cazares (Injury) Mercado P. (Injury) Pombo J. (Shoulder Injury) Schunke R. (Inactive) Viacava J. (Red Card) Villar G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Libertad: Melgarejo L. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	3:2 ✺
21.04.26	Rubio Ñu - Libertad Asuncion	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Universidad Central - Libertad Asuncion	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLTL
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Delfín - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Independiente del Valle - LDU Quito	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Central	3:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLWW

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