Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 27 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Libertad Asuncion		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.9	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.7
	2.58	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.7	3	2.91
	2.62	3.07	2.92	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.66	3.06	2.86	Watch
	2.58	2.98	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (1.76)	3.05 ↓ (3.45)	3.09 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
38%

Draw
31.2%

Alianza Lima
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

27.1%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

25.1%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 2 - 50%). Alianza Lima (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Alianza Lima (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Alianza Lima (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Alianza Lima (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 2 - 25%). Alianza Lima (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 3. Caceres M. 27. Jacquet M. 14. Fretes A. 20. Alcaraz A. 26. Caballero H. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 28. Fernandez M. 11. Aguilar G. 7. Cardozo O.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 4. Noriega E. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 15. Castillo J. 51. Cari P. 8. Castillo E. 34. Paolo Guerrero 27. Quevedo K.
Substitutes
6. Campuzano A. 17. Espinoza M. 4. Gimenez N. 31. Gutierrez T. 22. Martinez H. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 21. Sanabria L. 24. Santa C. R. 35. Troche A. 5. Viera D. 23. Villalba P. 32. Villalba R.	28. Aguirre G. 29. Arias B. 9. Barcos H. 1. Campos A. (G) 11. D'Arrigo J. 37. Delgado J. 26. Guzman V. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 24. Soyer B. 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Aquino S.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
28', 0 - 1, Paolo Guerrero ⚽, Castillo J. (A),
40', Jacquet M. 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Castillo E. ⚽, Cari P. (A),
45+3', Garces R. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 2, Cardozo O. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Caballero H. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
62', Cari P. ↓, Aguirre G. ↑,
63', 2 - 2, Ramirez I. ⚽,
68', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
68', Trauco M. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
77', Quevedo K. ↓, Velasquez J. ↑,
81', Lagos R. 🟨,
82', Cardozo O. 🟨,
83', Alcaraz A. ↓, Villalba R. ↑,
89', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
89', Fernandez M. ↓, Villalba P. ↑,
89', Aguilar G. ↓, Santa C. R. ↑,

Preview

Libertad is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Libertad is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Injury) Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Ceppelini P. (Suspended) Lavandeira Hernandez P. (Tendon Injury) Zambrano C. (Red Card)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Libertad won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
24.05.25	Libertad Asuncion - General Caballero JLM	1:0 ✺
21.05.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
17.05.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.05.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTTTL
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
23.05.25	Sport Boys - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
19.05.25	Alianza Lima - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.25	Talleres de Córdoba - Alianza Lima	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Alianza Lima - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
01.04.25	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
23.05.23	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
20.04.23	Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima	1:2
12.04.12	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	1:2

Upcoming Matches