Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Grau		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.2	1.8	Watch
	4.8	3	1.88
	5.49	3.25	1.83
	5.92	3.45	1.65	Watch
	4.8	3	1.8
	4.59	3.26	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↑ (4.36)	3.19 ↑ (3.05)	1.8 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Grau
18.7%

Draw
29.3%

Alianza Lima
52%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

30.6%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

30.2%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: Alianza Lima will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvarez P. (C) 4. Rodriguez D. 27. Tapia R. 2. Acevedo L. 16. Ataupillco J. 6. Rodas E. 11. Delgadillo N. 66. de la Cruz A. 5. Guarderas R. 10. de la Cruz P. 9. Ruidiaz R.	1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 4. Chavez G. 3. Antoni M. 13. Huaman M. 8. Castillo E. 7. Gaibor F. 5. Pavez E. 20. Velez J. 11. Cantero A. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C)
Substitutes
25. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 7. Barreto D. 33. Calderon A. (G) 19. Camargo I. 29. Franco E. 13. Oncoy F. 24. Ruidiaz Y. 32. Torres S. 20. Vásquez C.	18. Burlamaqui A. 15. Castillo J. 77. Estrada J. 32. Garcia J. 25. Gentile G. 30. Motta G. 27. Quevedo K. 9. Ramos L. 23. Viscarra G. (G)
Coaches
Ameli G.	Guede P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', de la Cruz P. 🟥,
42', 0 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Huaman M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Antoni M. 🟨,
62', Delgadillo N. ↓, Vásquez C. ↑,
62', de la Cruz A. ↓, Barreto D. ↑,
65', Ataupillco J. 🟨,
74', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Ramos L. ↑,
74', Guarderas R. ↓, Franco E. ↑,
74', Cantero A. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
75', Ruidiaz R. ↓, Camargo I. ↑,
80', Gaibor F. 🟨,
82', Rodriguez D. ↓, Ruidiaz Y. ↑,
84', Gaibor F. ↓, Burlamaqui A. ↑,
84', Velez J. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grau won 1.

In recent matches, Grau has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alianza Lima is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alianza Lima is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Garces R. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Grau won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Grau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Grau	11	5	2	4	14:13	1	17
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	14:10	4	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
22.04.26	Atlético Grau - Sporting Cristal	4:1 ✺
17.04.26	Los Chankas - Atlético Grau	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WLTTT
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.26	Alianza Lima - Cusco	8:0 ✺
14.04.26	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Alianza Lima - Juan Pablo II College	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
01.10.25	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	2:1
10.05.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:1
18.09.24	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:0
14.04.24	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	2:0
23.06.23	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	2:0
26.03.23	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:2
10.07.22	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:2

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