Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 7

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Libertad Loja		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3	3
	2.35	3.15	2.95	Watch
	2.32	3	3.13	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.36	3.16	3.04	Watch
	2.35	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.25)	3.11 ↓ (3.31)	3.04 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
40.1%

Draw
29.6%

El Nacional
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

28%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26.7%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Libertad Loja - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Libertad (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Bores E. (C) 54. Bardales W. 4. Biojo R. 23. Gruezo C. 6. Quinonez O. 7. Zambrano I. 28. Montano J. 21. Quinonez A. 8. Ayovi W. 37. Arboleda C. 19. Caicedo E.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 25. Montano M. 30. Carabali F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 28. Rivera B. 6. Olmedo M. 17. Velez C. 15. Cela A. 21. Cevallos J. 19. Mejia E. 22. Ledesma A.
Substitutes
9. Avila D. 22. Cagua F. 14. Caicedo N. 99. Castillo E. (G) 50. Humanante J. 11. Lastre E. 24. Monaga J. 80. Pachito B. 70. Quinonez Y.	59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 33. Congo J. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 66. Estupinan W. 20. Guisamano J. 77. Hernandez B. 8. Martinez F. 60. Maya J. 55. Mejia J. 24. Mora F. 14. Pazmino D.
Coaches
Leon J.	Asad O. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Ledesma A. ⚽, Cela A. (A),
34', Quinonez O. 🟨,
45+2', Ledesma A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Quinonez O. ↓, Caicedo N. ↑,
46', Quinonez A. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
50', Gruezo C. 🟨,
54', 0 - 2, Mejia E. ⚽,
72', Cela A. ↓, Mora F. ↑,
73', Caicedo E. ↓, Avila D. ↑,
73', 0 - 3, Mejia E. ⚽,
76', Bardales W. ↓, Quinonez Y. ↑,
77', Cevallos J. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
78', Ledesma A. ↓, De Jesus B. ↑,
78', Cabezas D. 🟨,
85', 1 - 3, Caicedo N. ⚽, Avila D. (A),
87', Mejia E. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
88', Olmedo M. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
90+6', Ayovi W. 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Libertad won 1.

Recent matches Libertad is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

El Nacional is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Libertad won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:19 (average 1.2:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:7 (average 0.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.03.25	Manta - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Libertad Loja - Orense	4:1 ✺
07.03.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:4 ✺
24.02.25	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TWWLT
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.03.25	El Nacional - Orense	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	El Nacional - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Manta - El Nacional	4:3 ✺
02.03.25	El Nacional - Técnico Universitario	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.11.24	El Nacional - Libertad Loja	1:4
18.05.24	Libertad Loja - El Nacional	0:2
25.09.23	Libertad Loja - El Nacional	0:1
23.04.23	El Nacional - Libertad Loja	4:2
Ecuadorian Serie B
20.10.22	El Nacional - Libertad Loja	4:2
17.10.22	Libertad Loja - El Nacional	1:1
14.07.22	Libertad Loja - El Nacional	1:0

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