Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
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Denmark	Viaplay
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Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic, TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
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International	OneFootball TV


	Lille		Brest

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.7	Watch
	1.95	3.70	3.60
	2	3.55	3.6
	2.05	3.75	3.76
	2.03	3.75	3.42	Watch
	2	3.7	3.7
	1.99	3.88	3.91	Watch
	1.97	3.7	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.66)	3.7 ↓ (4.11)	3.67 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
48%

Draw
25.8%

Brest
26.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.9%

23%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

22.5%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lille's form might have worsened.

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brest's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brest, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	4.2%	4.2%

Lille - Brest Predictions

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Lille (2.00) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Lille will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Brest could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Lille is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Lille: Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Ueda A. (Foot Injury).

Confirmed absences for Brest: Chardonnet B. (Calf Injury) Edjouma N. (Loan agreement) Le Guen R. (Broken Leg) Versini G. (Leg Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Lille has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:21 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lille against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 11:6 goals (averaging 1.2:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	9:4	5	13
8	Brest	6	2	2	2	12:9	3	8

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 4.8% Brest: 0.43%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	Arsenal - Lille	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
10.10.26	Lille - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Nice - Lille	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Lille - Troyes	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Lille - Betis	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLWL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
10.10.26	Brest - Angers	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Brest - Monza	2:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
20.09.26	Auxerre - Brest	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Le Havre - Brest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Lille - Brest	1:1
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3
10.05.25	Brest - Lille	2:0
06.12.24	Lille - Brest	3:1
17.03.24	Brest - Lille	1:1
22.10.23	Lille - Brest	1:0
24.02.23	Lille - Brest	2:1

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