Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, Now Player
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max, Sky Sport MIX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 3
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-america	ESPN 4 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Brest		Nice

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	2.2	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.45
	3.15	3.55	2.22
	3.23	3.66	2.27
	1.73	3.68	4.68	Watch
	3.16	3.69	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.41)	3.63 ↑ (3.48)	2.69 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
35.2%

Draw
27.6%

Nice
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

27.2%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.1%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Nice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nice than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	13.6%	50%

Brest - Nice Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). Nice will win (votes: 11 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nice: 29.1% – 70.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Nice (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Nice (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Brest (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 2 - 25%). Nice (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 2. Locko B. 23. Doumbia K. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. 10. Del Castillo R. 19. Ajorque L. 99. Mboup P.	80. Diouf Y. (G) 37. Peprah K. 28. Bah J. 24. Vanhoutte C. 92. Clauss J. 6. Boudaoui H. 10. Diop S. 26. Bard M. (C) 47. Gouveia T. 7. Boga J. 9. Moffi T.
Substitutes
18. Bourgault J. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 27. Guindo D. 50. Jauny N. (G) 14. Labeau Lascary R. 26. Le Cardinal J. 36. Le Guen R. 33. Makalou H. 12. Zogbe L.	99. Abdul Samed S. 64. Bombito M. 25. Cho M. 31. Dupe M. (G) 21. Jansson I. 90. Kevin 20. Louchet T. 33. Mendy A. 8. Sanson M.
Coaches
Roy E.	Haise F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Ajorque L. ⚽, Del Castillo R. (A),
9', 2 - 0, Del Castillo R. ⚽, Ajorque L. (A),
18', Vanhoutte C. 🟨,
25', Bard M. 🟨,
30', 2 - 1, Moffi T. ⚽, Boudaoui H. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Diop S. 🟨,
61', Mboup P. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
63', Gouveia T. ↓, Jansson I. ↑,
63', Moffi T. ↓, Abdul Samed S. ↑,
67', Labeau Lascary R. 🟨,
70', 3 - 1, Chotard J. ⚽, Ajorque L. (A),
73', Vanhoutte C. ↓, Louchet T. ↑,
73', Boudaoui H. ↓, Sanson M. ↑,
76', 4 - 1, Labeau Lascary R. ⚽, Ajorque L. (A),
79', Doumbia K. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
79', Boga J. ↓, Cho M. ↑,
84', Ajorque L. ↓, Makalou H. ↑,
85', Del Castillo R. ↓, Guindo D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 1.

Brest has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Nice has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Brest: Balde M. (Thigh Injury) Majecki R. (Red Card) Tousart L. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Nice: Abdelmonem M. (Knee Injury) Abdi A. (Groin Injury) Coulibaly D. (Injury) Dante (Knee Injury) Ndayishimiye Y. (Knee Injury) Ndombele T. (Groin Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Brest won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 12:28. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.6:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Brest - Paris FC	1:2 ✺
29.08.25	Lens - Brest	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brest - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTT
- OGC Nice
French Ligue 1
13.09.25	Nice - Nantes	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Le Havre - Nice	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Nice - Auxerre	3:1 ✺
16.08.25	Nice - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Benfica - Nice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
17.05.25	Nice - Brest	6:0
02.11.24	Brest - Nice	0:1
04.02.24	Brest - Nice	0:0
01.10.23	Nice - Brest	0:0
16.04.23	Brest - Nice	1:0
06.11.22	Nice - Brest	1:0
09.01.22	Brest - Nice	0:3

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