Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia
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Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
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India	GXR World
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Serbia	Arena Premium 3
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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
World	Disney+


	Lille		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.51	4.33	6.25
	1.55	4.3	5.9	Watch
	1.5	4.38	7.13
	1.47	4.5	7.49	Watch
	1.44	4.2	6
	1.52	4.3	7.17	Watch
	1.55	4.3	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.33)	4.31 ↓ (5.26)	6.54 ↓ (9.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
63.3%

Draw
22.1%

Saint-Étienne
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.4%

18.1%

10.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.7%

17.5%

10.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lille's form might have worsened.

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.3%	22.2%	9.5%

Lille - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: 61 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 42 - 68.9%). Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 6 - 9.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 21.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 57.3% – 80.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Chevalier L. (G) 2. Mandi A. 18. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 5. Gudmundsson G. 17. Mukau N. 26. Gomes A. 10. Cabella R. 8. Gomes A. 7. Haraldsson H. 9. David J. (C)	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 8. Appiah D. 21. Batubinsika D. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 6. Bouchouari B. 4. Ekwah P. 14. Mouton L. 7. Cardona I. 32. Stassin L. 22. Davitashvili Z.
Substitutes
20. Bakker M. 32. Bouaddi A. 16. Caillard M. (G) 35. Cossier I. 33. Lachaab Y. 1. Mannone V. (G) 29. Mbappe E. 12. Meunier T. 11. Sahraoui O.	5. Abdelhamid Y. 20. Boakye A. 17. Cornud P. 26. Fomba L. 27. Macon Y. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 63. N'Guessan D.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Horneland E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Davitashvili Z. (Pen),
32', 1 - 1, David J. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Mandi A. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
46', Gomes A. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
46', Cardona I. ↓, Boakye A. ↑,
48', Batubinsika D. 🟥,
50', Boakye A. 🟨,
51', Stassin L. ↓, Abdelhamid Y. ↑,
62', Gudmundsson G. 🟨,
63', 2 - 1, Sahraoui O. ⚽, David J. (A),
64', Cabella R. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Gudmundsson G. ⚽, Haraldsson H. (A),
73', Petrot L. ↓, Cornud P. ↑,
73', Mouton L. ↓, Macon Y. ↑,
77', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Bakker M. ↑,
78', 4 - 1, Sahraoui O. ⚽, Bakker M. (A),
84', Haraldsson H. ↓, Lachaab Y. ↑,
87', Davitashvili Z. ↓, N'Guessan D. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lille won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Lille could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lille is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Andre B. (Yellow Cards) Bentaleb N. (Heart Problems) Fernandez-Pardo M. (Ankle Injury) Ismaily (Calf Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury) Zhegrova E. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Moueffek A. (Illness) Old B. (Knee Injury) Sissoko I. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Saint-Étienne: Cardona I. (Personal Reasons) Macon Y. (Knee Injury) Monconduit T. (Leg Injury) Wadji I. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Lille won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 19:20 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lille won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14:5 (average 1.4:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Lille - Feyenoord	6:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
25.01.25	Strasbourg - Lille	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Liverpool - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.01.25	Lille - Nice	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Lille	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLWW
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
24.01.25	Auxerre - Saint-Étienne	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Saint-Étienne - Nantes	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
04.01.25	Saint-Étienne - Reims	3:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Saint-Étienne - Olympique Marseille	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
13.09.24	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:0
11.03.22	Lille - Saint-Étienne	0:0
21.08.21	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:1
16.05.21	Lille - Saint-Étienne	0:0
29.11.20	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:1
09.05.20	Saint-Étienne - Lille	Canceled
28.08.19	Lille - Saint-Étienne	3:0

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