Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 27

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Lille

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.9	Watch
	1.88	3.75	3.8
	1.95	3.55	3.95	Watch
	1.94	3.69	4.12
	1.9	3.73	3.97	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.8
	1.97	3.78	4.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.92)	3.66 ↑ (3.65)	3.95 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
49.8%

Draw
26.1%

Lille
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

25.7%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

27.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.7%	16.2%	8.1%

Olympique Marseille - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 28 - 75.7%). Lille will win (votes: 3 - 8.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 16.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 61.9% – 89.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Marseille (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Lille (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 4 - 80%). Lille (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 5. Balerdi L. 32. Medina F. 33. Emerson 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 19. Kondogbia G. 10. Greenwood M. 27. Timber Q. 14. Paixao I. 17. Aubameyang P.	1. Ozer B. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 23. Mandi A. (C) 24. Verdonk C. 32. Bouaddi A. 6. Bentaleb N. 17. Mukau N. 10. Haraldsson H. 27. Correia F. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.
Substitutes
8. Abdelli H. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 9. Gouiri A. 26. Nadir B. 6. Nnadi T. 11. Nwaneri E. 28. Pavard B. 20. Traore H. J.	4. Alexsandro 33. Baret L. 16. Bodart A. (G) 14. Broholm M. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 9. Giroud O. 18. Mbemba Ch. 15. Perraud R.
Coaches
Beye H.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Ngoy N. 🟨,
13', Verdonk C. 🟨,
13', Greenwood M. 🟨,
13', Haraldsson H. 🟨,
18', Greenwood M. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
43', 1 - 0, Nwaneri E. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
45+8', Ozer B. ↓, Bodart A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', 1 - 1, Meunier T. ⚽,
64', Kondogbia G. ↓, Gouiri A. ↑,
75', Nwaneri E. ↓, Traore H. J. ↑,
78', Verdonk C. ↓, Perraud R. ↑,
78', Correia F. ↓, Giroud O. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Giroud O. ⚽, Meunier T. (A),
90', Haraldsson H. ↓, Mbemba Ch. ↑,
90', Timber Q. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Lille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Marseille is the team to beat.

There will not play in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Perrin G. (Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Andre B. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 4.48% Marseille: 1.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Last Results with these Odds

Olympique Marseille - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 48.88%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
13.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Brest - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWL
- OSC Lille
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Aston Villa - Lille	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
15.03.26	Rennes - Lille	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Lille - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Lille - Nantes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
05.12.25	Lille - Olympique Marseille	1:0
04.05.25	Lille - Olympique Marseille	1:1
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Lille	1:2 penalties
French Ligue 1
14.12.24	Olympique Marseille - Lille	1:1
05.04.24	Lille - Olympique Marseille	3:1
04.11.23	Olympique Marseille - Lille	0:0
20.05.23	Lille - Olympique Marseille	2:1

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