Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 10

Date: 30 September 2023, Saturday

Location: LNER stadium (Lincoln)

Referee: Atkinson B. (Eng)


	Lincoln City		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	5.25
	1.68	3.6	5
	1.72	3.6	5	Watch
	1.71	3.83	5.22
	1.67	3.7	5
	1.69	3.68	5.05	Watch
	1.66	3.6	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.64)	3.68 ↓ (3.98)	5.1 ↑ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
55.9%

Draw
25.6%

Cheltenham Town
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

23.7%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

18.9%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lincoln City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Lincoln City - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Lincoln City will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jensen L. (G) 15. O'Connor P. (C) 5. Jackson A. 23. Roughan S. 2. Sorensen L. 11. Hamilton E. 6. Erhahon E. 3. Brown J. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 21. Adelakun H. 10. Bishop T.	1. Southwood L. (G) 2. Long S. (C) 5. Bevan O. 6. Freestone L. 15. Ferry W. 16. Adshead D. 23. Bonds E. 8. Sercombe L. 32. Malcolm J. 11. Street R. 10. Keena A.
Substitutes
16. Burroughs J. 17. Duffy D. 22. Eyoma T. 27. Makama J. 14. Mandroiu D. 8. Smith A. 12. Wright J. (G)	38. Butler-Oyedeji N. 33. Davies C. 7. Hammond O. 20. Harris M. (G) 14. Thompson C. 3. Williams B. 26. Williams J.
Coaches
Kennedy M.	Russell K.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 2.

Lincoln is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cheltenham has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lincoln could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lincoln is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Lincoln won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League Cup
27.09.23	Lincoln City - West Ham United	0:1 ✺
English League One
23.09.23	Portsmouth - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
English League One
16.09.23	Lincoln City - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
02.09.23	Bristol Rovers - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTT
- Cheltenham Town
English League One
23.09.23	Cheltenham Town - Stevenage Borough	0:3 ✺
19.09.23	Peterborough United - Cheltenham Town	3:0 ✺
16.09.23	Exeter City - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Bristol Rovers - Cheltenham Town	4:1 ✺
English League One
02.09.23	Cheltenham Town - Barnsley	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
07.04.23	Lincoln City - Cheltenham Town	2:0
07.03.23	Cheltenham Town - Lincoln City	0:0
18.04.22	Lincoln City - Cheltenham Town	3:0
11.12.21	Cheltenham Town - Lincoln City	2:2
English League Two
13.04.19	Lincoln City - Cheltenham Town	1:1
29.09.18	Cheltenham Town - Lincoln City	0:2
13.02.18	Lincoln City - Cheltenham Town	1:0

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