Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 8

Date: 16 September 2023, Saturday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Woods M. (Eng)


	Exeter City		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	6
	1.65	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.65	3.86	5.82
	1.6	3.5	4.75
	1.64	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.61	3.9	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.73)	3.79 ↑ (3.52)	5.42 ↑ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
57.8%

Draw
24.8%

Cheltenham Town
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

26.3%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

25.8%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Exeter City - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Cheltenham will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sinisalo V. (G) 26. Sweeney P. 4. Aimson W. (C) 5. Hartridge A. 7. Mitchell D. 8. Trevitt R. 6. Carroll T. 3. Jules Z. 12. Cole R. 19. Cox S. 13. Wildschut Y.	1. Southwood L. (G) 2. Long S. (C) 5. Bevan O. 6. Freestone L. 26. Williams J. 18. Chapman E. 8. Sercombe L. 3. Williams B. 15. Ferry W. 11. Street R. 32. Malcolm J.
Substitutes
41. Borges P. 24. Fitzwater J. 47. Jake R. 11. Scott J. 23. Taylor K. 17. Watts C. 33. Woods G. (G)	23. Bonds E. 38. Butler-Oyedeji N. 33. Davies C. 20. Harris M. (G) 10. Keena A. 17. Olayinka J. 25. Peupion C.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Elliott W.

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Exeter won 2.

Exeter is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cheltenham has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cheltenham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Exeter is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Exeter to win the game is with odds 1.66.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Exeter won 10 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 35-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
09.09.23	Exeter City - Leyton Orient	1:2 ✺
02.09.23	Burton Albion - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.08.23	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 penalties ✺
English League One
26.08.23	Exeter City - Reading	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Carlisle United - Exeter City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWWWW
- Cheltenham Town
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Bristol Rovers - Cheltenham Town	4:1 ✺
English League One
02.09.23	Cheltenham Town - Barnsley	0:2 ✺
26.08.23	Cheltenham Town - Northampton Town	0:1 ✺
19.08.23	Portsmouth - Cheltenham Town	0:0 ✺
15.08.23	Reading - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
18.03.23	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	3:1
20.08.22	Exeter City - Cheltenham Town	0:1
English League Cup
09.08.22	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	0:7
English EFL Trophy
05.10.21	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	2:3 penalties
English League Two
13.03.21	Exeter City - Cheltenham Town	0:1
05.12.20	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	5:3
16.11.19	Exeter City - Cheltenham Town	0:0

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