Match Info

Cymru South - Round 16

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday


	Newport City		Pontypridd United

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.7	3.25
	1.84	3.8	3.57
	1.88	3.97	3.5	Watch
	1.85	3.68	3.45
	1.81	3.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.93)	3.78 ↓ (3.89)	3.43 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport City
49.4%

Draw
24.1%

Pontypridd United
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

23.9%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

24.8%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Newport City - Pontypridd United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
89', Evans A. 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 11).

In recent matches, Newport City has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pontypridd is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Newport City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Newport City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Newport City won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
29.11.25	Treowen Stars - Newport City	2:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
23.11.25	Newport City - Blaenavon Blues	3:2 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru South
08.11.25	Llantwit Major - Newport City	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Newport City - Ammanford	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newport City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTTW
- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
28.11.25	Pontypridd United - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
22.11.25	Treowen Stars - Pontypridd United	1:2 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru South
15.11.25	Afan Lido - Pontypridd United	2:2 ✺
07.11.25	Pontypridd United - Cwmbran Celtic	7:0 ✺
01.11.25	Trefelin - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	1:3
10.01.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	0:2
27.09.24	Newport City - Pontypridd United	0:1

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