Match Info

Cymru South - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday


	Caerau Ely		Llantwit Major

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.85	4.25
	1.63	4.09	4.37
	2.32	2.34	4.62	Watch
	1.66	3.92	4.16
	1.87	4.1	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.87)	3.66 ↓ (4.1)	4.11 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
51.5%

Draw
25.6%

Llantwit Major
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

22.2%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

22%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Llantwit Major has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Llantwit Major might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Llantwit Major could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 11).

Caerau is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Llantwit Major's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Caerau is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 2.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Caerau won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 2.5:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
05.09.25	Ammanford - Caerau Ely	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Cardiff Draconians - Caerau Ely	0:1 ✺
08.08.25	Caerau Ely - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Ynyshir Albions - Caerau Ely	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWTW
- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
06.09.25	Llantwit Major - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3 ✺
22.08.25	Cambrian United - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0 ✺
08.08.25	Ammanford - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
05.04.25	Llantwit Major - Caerau Ely	1:0
07.02.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	2:4
02.02.24	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	3:2
30.09.23	Llantwit Major - Caerau Ely	1:4

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