Match Info

Cymru South - Round 11

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Caerphilly Athletic		Newport City

	1	X	2
	2.90	3.40	2.05
	2.97	3.61	2.09
	2.88	3.52	2.28	Watch
	2.90	3.55	2.06
	2.74	3.79	2.27
	2.95	3.55	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.59)	3.57 ↑ (3.53)	2.14 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerphilly Athletic
31.6%

Draw
25.6%

Newport City
42.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.9%

26.3%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

26%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerphilly Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerphilly Athletic than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newport City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Caerphilly Athletic - Newport City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Skiverton F. ⚽,
26', 2 - 0, Humphries E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 2 - 1, Norris J. ⚽,
68', 2 - 2, Johnson S. ⚽,
70', 3 - 2, Jordan T. ⚽,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 14th and 12th).

Recent results have been tough for Caerphilly (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Newport City has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Newport City is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Caerphilly	11	4	2	5	15:20	-5	14
14	Newport City	9	2	3	4	16:13	3	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerphilly Athletic
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.26	Pure Swansea - Caerphilly Athletic	3:1 ✺
25.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Pontypridd United	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
04.09.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerphilly Athletic	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerphilly Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.26	Cardiff Draconians - Newport City	1:1 ✺
25.09.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Newport City - Ynyshir Albions	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Pontardawe Town - Newport City	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerphilly Athletic
Welsh Cymru South
30.10.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Caerau Ely	✺
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
31.10.26	Llantwit Major - Newport City	✺

Caerphilly Athletic - Newport City