Match Info

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday


	Caerphilly Athletic		Newport City

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.40	2.32
	2.59	3.53	2.46	Watch
	2.51	3.46	2.30
	2.55	3.55	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.59)	3.49 ↓ (3.53)	2.36 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerphilly Athletic
35.6%

Draw
26%

Newport City
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

26.3%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

25.8%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerphilly Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerphilly Athletic than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Caerphilly Athletic - Newport City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 14th and 12th).

Caerphilly is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Newport City have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Newport City	7	2	2	3	10:6	4	8
14	Caerphilly	9	2	2	5	9:17	-8	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerphilly Athletic
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.26	Pure Swansea - Caerphilly Athletic	3:1 ✺
25.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Pontypridd United	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
04.09.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerphilly Athletic	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerphilly Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.26	Cardiff Draconians - Newport City	1:1 ✺
25.09.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Newport City - Ynyshir Albions	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Pontardawe Town - Newport City	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLLW

Caerphilly Athletic - Newport City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide