Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 27

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Llerenense		Badajoz

	1	X	2
	3.9	3	1.88
	3.8	3.05	1.92
	4.28	3.39	1.79
	3.93	3.18	1.93	Watch
	4	3.1	1.83
	4.5	3.28	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.07 ↓ (4.61)	3.17 ↓ (3.47)	1.85 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llerenense
22.3%

Draw
28.6%

Badajoz
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

26.3%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

25.5%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llerenense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Badajoz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llerenense than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Badajoz than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Badajoz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Llerenense - Badajoz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Alegria A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
72', 0 - 2, Rodriguez P. ⚽,
88', 0 - 3, Lolo Gonzalez ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 14 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Llerenense won 2.

Llerenense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Badajoz is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Badajoz has had a series of home games.

In this match, Badajoz is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Llerenense won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Llerenense won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Llerenense	4	3	1	0	3:0	3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Llerenense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
15.03.26	Pueblonuevo - Llerenense	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Llerenense - Montijo	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Moralo - Llerenense	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Llerenense - Diocesano	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Villafranca - Llerenense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LTLWL
- CD Badajoz
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
15.03.26	Badajoz - Jerez	5:4 ✺
08.03.26	Badajoz - Pueblonuevo	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Badajoz - Montijo	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Badajoz - Moralo	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Diocesano - Badajoz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
09.11.25	Badajoz - Llerenense	1:1
08.06.25	Llerenense - Badajoz	2:0
01.06.25	Badajoz - Llerenense	1:0
01.02.25	Llerenense - Badajoz	1:0
21.09.24	Badajoz - Llerenense	3:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
05.05.24	Badajoz - Llerenense	2:3
07.01.24	Llerenense - Badajoz	2:1

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