Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Badajoz		Montijo

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.45	4.75
	1.64	3.56	5.17
	1.65	3.5	5.15	Watch
	1.58	3.61	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.95)	3.53 ↑ (3.23)	5.32 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Badajoz
56.7%

Draw
26%

Montijo
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

26.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Badajoz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Badajoz's performance.

Montijo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montijo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Badajoz than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Badajoz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montijo than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montijo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Badajoz - Montijo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
56', 1 - 0, ⚽,
60', 1 - 1, ⚽,
79', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 14 (Play Offs: ) and 11).

Badajoz has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Montijo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Badajoz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Badajoz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Badajoz won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Badajoz won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Montijo	5	2	0	3	6:8	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Badajoz
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
22.02.26	Badajoz - Moralo	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Diocesano - Badajoz	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Badajoz - Villafranca	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Don Benito - Badajoz	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Badajoz - Santa Amalia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWTT
- UD Montijo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
22.02.26	Pueblonuevo - Montijo	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Montijo - Jerez	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Montijo - Moralo	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Diocesano - Montijo	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Montijo - Villafranca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
19.10.25	Montijo - Badajoz	1:2
23.03.25	Badajoz - Montijo	1:1
10.11.24	Montijo - Badajoz	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.04.24	Montijo - Badajoz	1:2
10.12.23	Badajoz - Montijo	1:1

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