Match Info

Parva liga - Relegation Group - Round 37

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Lokomotiv (Sofia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Slovenia	SportKlub 6


	Lokomotiv Sofia		Hebar Pazardzhik

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.5
	1.82	3.6	3.6
	1.54	4.2	5.2
	1.54	4.49	5.09
	1.54	4.48	5.19	Watch
	1.44	4	5.8
	1.54	4.3	5.6
	1.54	4.2	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.46)	4.22 ↓ (4.51)	5.15 ↓ (5.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lokomotiv Sofia
59.8%

Draw
22.1%

Hebar Pazardzhik
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

20.5%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

19.3%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotiv Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Hebar Pazardzhik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotiv Sofia than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lokomotiv Sofia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hebar Pazardzhik than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Lokomotiv Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lokomotiv Sofia will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Hebar will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lokomotiv Sofia: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hebar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Petkov D. (G) 27. Galchev P. 44. Katsarov B. 26. Diarra M. 4. Orachev M. (C) 94. Nenov Y. 5. Pitsolis A. 21. Chachev K. 77. Manolkov E. 18. Dikov S. 29. Aralica A.	97. Rosa M. (G) 17. Metanov N. 33. Tsonkov S. (C) 2. Pavlek D. 44. Nikolaev N. 10. Ganev C. 21. Penchev B. 20. Petrovic M. 4. Velchev K. 70. Dunnwald-Turan K. 8. Tsoumou J.
Substitutes
22. Ali D. 47. Arkhipov V. 91. Bidounga R. 98. Borisov K. 7. Delev S. 55. Gogev E. 88. Istatkov Z. (G) 15. Ivanov L. 20. Teixeira D.	14. Angelov Y. 77. Cavar B. 98. Drinov N. 18. Gigov N. 23. Lazarov L. 99. Paskulov D. (G) 88. Rusinov I. 9. Ushagelov T. 11. Vukovic D.
Coaches
Dostanic R.	Vutsov V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Ganev C. 🟨,
24', Petrovic M. 🟨,
30', Velchev K. ↓, Cavar B. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Dikov S. ↓, Delev S. ↑,
51', Ganev C. ↓, Gigov N. ↑,
56', Nenov Y. ↓, Arkhipov V. ↑,
56', Chachev K. ↓, Gogev E. ↑,
56', Manolkov E. ↓, Borisov K. ↑,
71', Metanov N. ↓, Drinov N. ↑,
71', Rosa M. ↓, Paskulov D. ↑,
72', Tsoumou J. ↓, Lazarov L. ↑,
73', Pitsolis A. ↓, Ivanov L. ↑,
78', Cavar B. 🟨,
79', 1 - 0, Diarra M. ⚽,
89', 2 - 0, Aralica A. (Pen),
90+2', 3 - 0, Aralica A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv Sofia won 2.

Lokomotiv Sofia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hebar has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lokomotiv Sofia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lokomotiv Sofia is the team to beat.

There will not play in Lokomotiv Sofia: Acka D. (Knee Injury) Stanoev K. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Hebar: Guermouche Y. (Yellow Cards) Makni N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Hebar: Angelov Y. (Injury)

We predict that Lokomotiv Sofia will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv Sofia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lokomotiv Sofia won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lokomotiv Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
20.05.25	Septemvri Sofia - Lokomotiv Sofia	0:2 ✺
14.05.25	Lokomotiv Sofia - CSKA 1948 Sofia	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Slavia Sofia - Lokomotiv Sofia	0:0 ✺
07.05.25	Lokomotiv Sofia - Botev Vratsa	3:0 ✺
02.05.25	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Lokomotiv Sofia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTWT
- Hebar Pazardzhik
Bulgarian Parva Liga
20.05.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Botev Vratsa	1:0 ✺
15.05.25	Septemvri Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1:2 ✺
07.05.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	0:0 ✺
01.05.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
15.03.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Sofia	2:1
27.09.24	Lokomotiv Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	0:0
28.04.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Sofia	0:2
16.02.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Sofia	0:1
18.08.23	Lokomotiv Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	0:1
29.04.23	Lokomotiv Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:4
07.10.22	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Sofia	3:2

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