Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Chapín (Jerez)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Xerez CD		Lorca Deportiva

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.92	3.8
	2.13	2.89	4.17
	1.81	3.27	4.35	Watch
	1.98	2.88	4.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.79)	2.99 ↓ (3.15)	4.09 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xerez CD
46.7%

Draw
30.8%

Lorca Deportiva
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

28.7%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

26.8%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xerez CD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Lorca Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Xerez CD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (-3%)

Xerez CD - Lorca Deportiva Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Morros ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Adri 🟥,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 10).

Xerez has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lorca Deportiva is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Lorca Deportiva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Xerez is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
09.11.25	La Unión - Xerez CD	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Linares Deportivo - Xerez CD	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Xerez CD - Minera	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Recreativo Huelva - Xerez CD	1:2 ✺
12.10.25	Xerez CD - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WTWWW
- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
12.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Minera	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Estepona - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Lorca Deportiva - Almería	0:2 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.10.25	Linares Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WWWLW

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