Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Municipal Los Chankas (Andahuaylas)


	Los Chankas		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	1.9	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.05
	3.85	3.35	1.95	Watch
	3.85	3.35	1.98
	4.09	3.56	1.79	Watch
	3.93	3.43	1.91	Watch
	4	3.4	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↑ (2.62)	3.37 ↓ (3.45)	1.92 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Los Chankas
24.2%

Draw
27.5%

Alianza Lima
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

27%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

26.6%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Los Chankas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Los Chankas's form might have worsened.

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Los Chankas than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Los Chankas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	7.7%	76.9%

Los Chankas - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Los Chankas will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Lima: 62.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Camacho H. (G) 4. Mogollon E. 18. Takeuchi O. 2. Gonzalez H. 31. Quintana A. 33. Pimienta C. 10. Torres F. 5. Palomino J. 6. Guivin Tanta J. 7. Manzaneda J. (C) 27. Bueno P.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 14. Huaman M. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 13. Lagos R. 7. Gaibor F. 15. Castillo J. 27. Quevedo K. 10. Ceppelini P. 8. Castillo E. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C)
Substitutes
9. Camargo I. 29. Diaz W. (G) 11. Espinoza Vega F. E. 26. Gonzales D. 8. Quiroz A. 38. Rivero B. 35. Sanchez K. 23. Santiago G. 34. Vega R.	55. Aquino P. 9. Barcos H. 1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 51. Cari P. 24. Chavez G. 3. Estrada J. 25. Gentile G. 18. Pena S.
Coaches
Paolella W.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Castillo E. 🟨,
31', Manzaneda J. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Paolo Guerrero ⚽, Castillo J. (A),
45+2', Quintana A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Quevedo K. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
61', 0 - 2, Paolo Guerrero ⚽, Lagos R. (A),
63', Pimienta C. 🟨,
69', Mogollon E. ↓, Quiroz A. ↑,
69', Palomino J. ↓, Camargo I. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Camargo I. ⚽, Bueno P. (A),
74', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
75', Castillo E. ↓, Chavez G. ↑,
81', Ceppelini P. ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
81', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
84', Quintana A. 🟨,
90+1', Manzaneda J. ↓, Santiago G. ↑,
90+2', Torres F. ↓, Rivero B. ↑,
90+2', Castillo J. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 5).

In recent matches, Los Chankas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alianza Lima is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alianza Lima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alianza Lima is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Los Chankas: Quiroz A. (Injury) Saravia F. (Knee Injury) Velarde C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Chavez G. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Los Chankas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Los Chankas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Los Chankas
Peruvian Liga 1
01.11.25	Los Chankas - Ayacucho	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Sporting Cristal - Los Chankas	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Los Chankas - Juan Pablo II College	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Alianza Atlético - Los Chankas	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Los Chankas - Cusco	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.5 WWWLW
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
31.10.25	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	2:2 ✺
20.10.25	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
16.10.25	Alianza Lima - Sport Boys	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.25	Alianza Lima - Los Chankas	1:0
24.08.24	Los Chankas - Alianza Lima	0:1
28.03.24	Alianza Lima - Los Chankas	3:0
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
11.06.21	Los Chankas - Alianza Lima	3:2 penalties

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