Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Segra Field (Leesburg, VA)

Referee: Berna Rico S. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Loudoun United		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.6	3.7	4.4
	1.75	3.85	4
	1.78	4.25	3.97
	1.75	4	4.08	Watch
	1.7	3.74	4.41	Watch
	1.75	3.85	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.7)	3.9 ↑ (3.5)	4.14 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loudoun United
53.8%

Draw
23.8%

Lexington
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

26.4%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

25.9%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loudoun United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loudoun United than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Loudoun United - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Fauroux H. (G) 20. Mines B. 3. Tingey K. 16. Turner C. 17. Santos P. 7. Leggett W. 4. McCabe T. (C) 8. Nyeman M. 11. Aboukoura A. 15. Bidois R. 10. Valot F.	1. Ketterer L. (G) 6. Hafferty J. 5. Burks K. 37. Goldthorp E. 24. Sargeant K. 3. Djeffal S. 80. Williams D. (C) 11. Epps M. 22. Greene J. 71. Adedokun M. 17. Lancaster C.
Substitutes
6. Awuah K. 88. Hurge A. 30. Jack R. (G) 13. Nagy A. 35. Pendleton E. 14. Ryan Z. 12. Skundrich D.	14. Barbir D. 16. Caceres E. 27. Gilbert G. 83. Mbongue H. 8. Nick Firmino 31. Thompson B. (G) 15. Wu D.
Coaches
Martin R.	Boss T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Epps M. ⚽,
25', Mines B. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Valot F. ⚽, Santos P. (A),
42', Adedokun M. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Turner C. ↓, Awuah K. ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Tingey K. (Pen),
56', Adedokun M. 🟨,
59', 3 - 1, Aboukoura A. ⚽, Valot F. (A),
63', Djeffal S. ↓, Nick Firmino ↑,
64', Goldthorp E. ↓, Gilbert G. ↑,
64', Bidois R. ↓, Ryan Z. ↑,
69', Mines B. ↓, Skundrich D. ↑,
73', Lancaster C. ↓, Mbongue H. ↑,
76', 4 - 1, Awuah K. ⚽, Ryan Z. (A),
84', McCabe T. ↓, Pendleton E. ↑,
84', Leggett W. ↓, Nagy A. ↑,
87', 5 - 1, Ryan Z. ⚽, Nagy A. (A),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 11).

Loudoun has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lexington's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Loudoun may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Loudoun has had a series of away games.

In this match, Loudoun is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Loudoun won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loudoun United
USL Championship
03.05.25	Las Vegas Lights - Loudoun United	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Lexington - Loudoun United	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Loudoun United - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Louisville City - Loudoun United	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Loudoun United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LWWLW
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
01.05.25	Louisville City - Lexington	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Lexington - Loudoun United	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Lexington - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Lexington - Las Vegas Lights	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	El Paso Locomotive - Lexington	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Cup
26.04.25	Lexington - Loudoun United	0:1

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