Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Louisville City		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.70	3.75	3.75
	1.64	3.85	4.20
	1.80	3.75	4.85
	1.84	4.04	3.46	Watch
	1.76	3.05	4.80
	1.73	3.34	4.49	Watch
	1.74	3.75	3.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.58)	3.65 ↓ (3.85)	4.21 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
52.8%

Draw
25.3%

Lexington
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.4%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

22.6%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Louisville City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-3%)

Louisville City - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Faundez D. (G) 5. Dayes B. 4. Totsch S. 32. Adams K. (C) 3. Morris J. 31. Lambert K. 8. Davila T. 23. Gleadle S. 25. Wilson J. 47. Akale M. 9. Donovan C.	17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 4. Ordonez A. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 8. Nick Firmino 27. Rodrigues B. P. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.
Substitutes
27. Davila E. 13. Dia A. 6. Duncan Z. 1. Fauroux H. (G) 21. Huerman Q. 15. Perez E. 7. Serrano R. 14. Showunmi T. 97. Weinrich T.	10. Adedokun M. 14. Caborn A. 22. Hafferty J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 19. Scott T. 31. Thompson B. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Rodrigues B. P. ⚽, Molloy A. (A),
24', Goodrum P. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Wilson J. ⚽, Gleadle S. (A),
32', Goodrum P. 🟨,
34', 2 - 1, Donovan C. ⚽, Wilson J. (A),
41', Donovan C. 🟨,
43', 2 - 2, Zengue X. ⚽, Molloy A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Akale M. ↓, Duncan Z. ↑,
54', Ferri B. ↓, Adedokun M. ↑,
59', 3 - 2, Wilson J. ⚽,
66', Lambert K. 🟨,
66', Epps M. ↓, Henry-Scott M. ↑,
66', Ordonez A. ↓, Hafferty J. ↑,
66', Rodrigues B. P. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
70', Lambert K. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
70', Donovan C. ↓, Showunmi T. ↑,
70', Gleadle S. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
73', 4 - 2, Brown J. (Own goal),
80', Wilson J. ↓, Huerman Q. ↑,
88', Zengue X. ↓, Muir M. ↑,
89', Davila T. 🟨,
90', Showunmi T. 🟨,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Louisville City is a strong favorite.

We predict that Louisville City will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Louisville City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
04.07.26	Louisville City - Hartford Athletic	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
20.06.26	Detroit City - Louisville City	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
13.06.26	Louisville City - Brooklyn	2:2 ✺
10.06.26	Phoenix Rising - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
03.06.26	Birmingham Legion - Louisville City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWTWT
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
04.07.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Lexington	1:4 ✺
USL Cup
20.06.26	Lexington - Indy Eleven	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
13.06.26	Lexington - San Antonio	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Detroit City - Lexington	1:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
30.05.26	El Paso Locomotive - Lexington	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

US Open Cup
01.04.26	Lexington - Louisville City	0:2
USL Championship
06.03.26	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2
USL Cup
26.07.25	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2
USL Championship
01.05.25	Louisville City - Lexington	2:0

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