Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL Premiership - Round 31

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Lakeview Park (Loughgall)

Referee: McGonigle S. (Nir)


	Loughgall		Larne

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.55
	5.6	4.2	1.51
	6.08	4.63	1.48
	6.19	4.28	1.49	Watch
	5	3.8	1.6
	6.25	4.2	1.46
	5.6	4.2	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.67 ↑ (4.54)	4.2 ↑ (3.6)	1.51 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loughgall
16.4%

Draw
22.1%

Larne
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

25.5%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

24.8%

55.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loughgall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Larne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Larne's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loughgall than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Larne than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Larne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Loughgall - Larne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Gartside N. (G) 18. Balde A. 25. Carroll J. 19. Francis L. 30. McCaffrey F. 29. McCloskey C. 32. McLaughlin K. 4. Murdock B. 12. Norton R. 17. O'Brien M. 27. Towe A.	1. Ferguson R. (G) 28. Bayode O. 23. Cosgrove T. 4. Donnelly A. 27. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 16. McEneff J. 19. Nolan R. 10. O'Connor T. 9. O'Neill P. 2. Want S.
Substitutes
47. Da Silva Guterres O. 33. Kelly D. 16. McMenemy L. 7. Pablo Andrade 1. Turker B. (G) 8. Waide R. 57. Woolsey Z.	24. Brown S. 34. Devlin O. 36. Graham D. (G) 7. McKendry C. 22. Panayiotou H. 47. Simpson J. 46. Wallace L.
Coaches
Johnstone D.	Haveron G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, O'Neill P. ⚽,
18', Francis L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Francis L. ↓, Waide R. ↑,
55', Nolan R. 🟨,
62', McEneff J. ↓, Devlin O. ↑,
65', Norton R. 🟨,
67', Norton R. 🟨,
78', Balde A. 🟨,
82', Towe A. 🟨,
86', O'Connor T. ↓, McKendry C. ↑,
88', Balde A. ↓, Da Silva Guterres O. ↑,

Preview

Loughgall is NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Loughgall won 1.

Loughgall has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Larne is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Loughgall could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Larne is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Loughgall won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 12:18 (average 1.3:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Loughgall won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:10 (average 2.2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loughgall FC
Northern Irish Premiership
04.03.25	Loughgall - Glenavon	0:2 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
01.03.25	Ards - Loughgall	2:0 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
26.02.25	Loughgall - Larne	1:4 ✺
22.02.25	Carrick Rangers - Loughgall	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Linfield - Loughgall	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLTL
- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
04.03.25	Carrick Rangers - Larne	1:0 ✺
26.02.25	Loughgall - Larne	1:4 ✺
22.02.25	Larne - Dungannon Swifts	0:1 ✺
18.02.25	Larne - Glenavon	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Portadown - Larne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
26.02.25	Loughgall - Larne	1:4
24.09.24	Larne - Loughgall	2:0
09.02.24	Larne - Loughgall	2:0
22.12.23	Larne - Loughgall	1:0
26.09.23	Loughgall - Larne	1:0
Northern Irish Championship
24.08.18	Loughgall - Larne	2:3
23.09.17	Loughgall - Larne	2:1

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