Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY)

Referee: Berna Rico S. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Louisville City		Indy Eleven

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.39	4.33	6
	1.4	4.65	6.1
	1.41	5	6.55
	1.47	4.52	5.99	Watch
	1.39	4.7	6.73	Watch
	1.4	4.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.42)	4.62 ↓ (4.82)	6.23 ↑ (6.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
65.3%

Draw
19.9%

Indy Eleven
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

19.3%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.3%

18.3%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Indy Eleven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Louisville City - Indy Eleven Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Las D. (G) 2. McFadden A. 4. Totsch S. 24. Jones J. 32. Adams K. (C) 13. Dia A. 16. Perez A. 31. Lambert K. 17. Davila T. 7. Serrano R. 23. Gleadle S.	31. Pruter L. (G) 71. Zalinsky J. 12. Schaefer B. 30. Ofeimu B. 41. Musa J. 5. Murphy J. 14. Quinn A. (C) 8. Blake J. 6. Lindley C. 27. Rendon B. 9. Williams R.
Substitutes
27. Davila E. 83. Dayes B. 12. Faundez D. (G) 9. Goodrum P. 53. Lancaster C. 11. McCabe N. 3. Morris J. 10. Ownby B. 80. Stamps H.	22. Amoh E. 21. Bryneus O. 19. Kizza E. 2. O'Brien J. 32. Soumaoro B. 98. Sulte H. (G) 33. White H.
Coaches
Cruz D.	McAuley S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Dia A. ⚽, Lambert K. (A),
41', Cruz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 2 - 0, Davila T. ⚽,
63', Zalinsky J. ↓, White H. ↑,
63', Murphy J. ↓, Amoh E. ↑,
69', Gleadle S. ↓, Goodrum P. ↑,
69', Perez A. ↓, Ownby B. ↑,
72', Las D. 🟥,
74', Goodrum P. ↓, Faundez D. ↑,
78', Rendon B. ↓, Soumaoro B. ↑,
78', Ofeimu B. ↓, Bryneus O. ↑,
82', Serrano R. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
82', Davila T. ↓, Dayes B. ↑,

Preview

Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 4.

Louisville City is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Indy has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Louisville City has had a series of away games.

In this match, Louisville City is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Louisville City will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:21. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Louisville City won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
27.09.25	Detroit City - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Louisville City - Las Vegas Lights	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Rhode Island - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWWW
- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
27.09.25	Indy Eleven - Tulsa	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Rhode Island - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Charleston Battery - Indy Eleven	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Hartford Athletic - Indy Eleven	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
30.08.25	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	1:3
05.10.24	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	2:2
06.04.24	Louisville City - Indy Eleven	5:3
29.07.23	Louisville City - Indy Eleven	2:0
27.05.23	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	0:1
31.08.22	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	2:1
26.03.22	Louisville City - Indy Eleven	1:1

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