Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group B - Round 24

Date: 24 January 2025, Friday

Location: Porta Elisa (Lucca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 251


	Lucchese		Ascoli

	1	X	2
	3	2.75	2.3
	3	2.47	2.38
	3.19	2.78	2.62
	3.3	2.61	2.64	Watch
	2.9	2.88	2.45
	3.33	2.77	2.46	Watch
	3	2.47	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.77)	2.68 ↓ (3.03)	2.46 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucchese
29.2%

Draw
33.9%

Ascoli
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

29.5%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

29.2%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucchese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	66.7%	25%

Lucchese - Ascoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Lucchese will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Ascoli will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Palmisani L. (G) 29. Antoni E. 31. Catanese G. 6. Gasbarro A. 30. Gemignani A. 27. Gucher R. 9. Magnaghi S. 33. Sabbione A. 70. Saporiti E. 8. Tumbarello G. 21. Visconti E.	1. Livieri A. (G) 23. Alagna M. 4. Carpani G. 18. Corazza S. 28. Gagliolo R. 10. Marsura D. 3. Maurizii E. 13. Piermarini M. 7. Silipo A. 32. Tremolada L. 8. Varone I.
Substitutes
12. Allegrucci L. (G) 26. Cartano R. 1. Coletta J. (G) 90. Costantino R. 13. Fazzi N. 19. Fedato F. 77. Giacchino G. 71. Moschella M. 18. Sasanelli L. 10. Selvini A.	6. Adjapong C. 24. Bando A. 5. Bertini M. 45. Ciabuschi J. 27. Cozzoli F. 2. Curado M. 15. D'Uffizi S. 67. Gagliardi M. 25. Maiga Silvestri Y. 19. Menna D. 99. Raffaelli M. (G) 85. Sciammarella L. (G) 11. Tirelli M. 29. Toma R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Saporiti E. ⚽,
16', Carpani G. 🟨,
21', Piermarini M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Marsura D. ↓, Tirelli M. ↑,
46', Piermarini M. ↓, Curado M. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Tremolada L. ⚽,
56', Varone I. 🟨,
57', 2 - 1, Gemignani A. ⚽,
60', Silipo A. ↓, Adjapong C. ↑,
61', Antoni E. 🟨,
67', Gagliolo R. ↓, Ciabuschi J. ↑,
74', Antoni E. ↓, Fedato F. ↑,
74', Magnaghi S. ↓, Selvini A. ↑,
75', Carpani G. ↓, Gagliardi M. ↑,
80', Gagliardi M. 🟨,
87', Saporiti E. 🟨,
88', Saporiti E. ↓, Cartano R. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 12).

Lucchese is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Ascoli is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ascoli will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lucchese won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:6 (average 1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Lucchese won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
18.01.25	Rimini - Lucchese	0:0 ✺
10.01.25	Lucchese - SPAL	2:3 ✺
04.01.25	Gubbio - Lucchese	3:1 ✺
20.12.24	Lucchese - Pineto	3:3 ✺
15.12.24	Sassari Torres - Lucchese	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TLLTT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
19.01.25	Ascoli - Milan Futuro	2:2 ✺
12.01.25	Ascoli - Virtus Entella	0:1 ✺
06.01.25	Pianese - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
20.12.24	Ascoli - SPAL	1:1 ✺
14.12.24	Legnago Salus - Ascoli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
22.09.24	Ascoli - Lucchese	1:2
08.03.15	Ascoli - Lucchese	3:1
18.10.14	Lucchese - Ascoli	0:2

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